There's a Warning Sign in the Poll Numbers

Fewer Americans disapprove of the President these days, but that's because of the GOP.

The President's approval rating in the Real Clear Politics average hovers around 41%, which may be close to the ceiling. It is becoming increasingly likely that the President's numbers should be viewed as that high because of the economic good news, not low in spite of the good economic news. Regardless, there is a warning sign in the new Morning Consult online polling, which tends to be more favorable to the President.

According to this poll, the President's disapproval is at a new low, meaning fewer Americans disapprove of the President than ever before. That sounds great, but it appears the reason is because Republicans have rallied to the President after tax reform. Well over 80% of Democrats and 49% of Independent voters still disapprove of the President. If that trend holds, it could help the GOP hold Republican districts in November, but still wipe out enough seats to give the Democrats the House and potentially take the Senate.

It's really pathetic how often people point out that the polls were "wrong." If you took the time to do some homework instead of parroting Trump talking points, you'd know that the polls were accurate and within the margin of error. Polls predicted the popular vote, and they were right in predicting Hillary would get more votes than Trump.
You can say that predictions based on the polls were incorrect, but the data was right on.


Yes, by 3.3%. She won the popular vote by 2.1%. The popular vote in and of itself is irrelevant, but that is what a national poll measures. So in fact the RCP average was very, very accurate. That is an extremely close result considering all of the varying factors that go into polling such a race.

@StridentConservative Thank you for this. I have brought this up over and over again, but it is like arguing with a tree. There are way too many people that simply don't know what they are talking about. And that is okay as long as a person is willing to realize when they are wrong and change course. That is the problem. Most of these people will simply not acknowledge that they are wrong, no matter how much data is put in front of them. They would rather rely on a snippet they heard on Fox as proof that the polls were wrong. Almost all of the predictions, which were loosely based off of the polls were wrong. That is a completely different thing that the polls being wrong themselves. It is an error in interpretation, not an error in the data collected.

@StridentConservative The national polling averages were very, very close. I would advise anyone to not put too much stock into individual polls. Trends are worth noting, but the bottom line numbers can be off significantly when taken alone. When taken collectively, they tend to be very, very good, especially considering the unpredictability of the behavior of 50 different electorates. Below is a chart I made of the RCP averages because I got tired of having to look up the exact numbers over and over again. The short version is that 9 of the 14 battleground states were within 3% of the final results. 3 of 14 were between 3% and 5%. Only 2 states were off by more than that at 6.5% and 7.2%. What we see is that even the state polling was really good. The polling was closer to the final results in 2016 as it was in 2012 (which under shot Obama's performance). However, this 100% accurate, verifiable data blows up the talking point that "the polls were wrong" and "the polls were biased". Too many people, right and left, would rather believe what they want to be true rather than believe what is true. If they don't like the results of a poll, well then the polls are all a scam to hurt my guy. Trump was very unpopular. So was Clinton. Many people that didn't like Trump, voted for him anyway because they were honest about not liking him. Hillary's voters did more pretending to like her, so her numbers weren't as low as Trump's and yet he still won. It does us no good to pretend that reality is different than it is. That leads to errors in judgment and mistakes by being a fool.
2016 RCP Poll Analysis
Poll Avg Result Difference
AZ 4.0 3.5 -0.5
CO 4.9 2.9 -2.0
FL 0.2 1.2 1.0
GA 4.8 5.1 0.3
IA 3.0 9.5 6.5
ME 4.5 2.9 -1.6
MI 3.4 0.3 3.7
NV 0.8 2.4 3.2
NH 0.6 0.3 -0.3
NC 1.0 3.7 2.7
OH 3.5 8.1 4.6
PA 1.9 0.7 2.6
VI 5.0 5.4 0.4
WI 6.5 0.7 7.2

Avg 2.6
0-3% 9
3-5% 3 NV, MI, OH
5-7.2% 2 WI, IA

MN - removed due to few recent, quality polls
MZ - removed to few recent polls and not battleground (Trump +11)

This is a political blog, not a Sunday School Class. It is a part of American discourse to be condisending. Do not look at political cartoons or opinions in the newspaper? Erik is free to have his opinion and I am free to make fun of it. It’s America, it’s the it is.

Polls, polls, polls - Erik uses them to make his points, until his points turn out to be wrong in reality. Maybe Erik would be a better weather man than a political prognosticator.

Tax cuts GOOD. Budget BAD and UGLY. Up next, IMMIGRATION that can exponentially include BAD BAD BAD and UGLY UGLY UGLY on steroids.

Note: My chart was in color, red and blue, which helps make sense of which number is with which candidate, but that doesn't translate over to the post. A positive difference means the state moved toward the final winner (who may or may not have been leading in the polling average). A negative number means it moved away from the winner. By adding the math and knowing who won which state, you can figure out who was leading and who won each state. The color coding showed all of that, but there are the numbers anyway.

As others have pointed out more eloquently than I will, the 2016 polling (I consider 538 the best place for those types of numbers) was right on the money. MILLIONS more US citizens voted for Secretary Clinton than for Mr. Trump. If you count the millions of others who voted for a third party (neither Clinton nor Trump), you begin to see that the vast majority of people in the United States did NOT want this grotesque little man in the Oval Office. In 2018, you'll see all those folks do whatever they can to make sure 45's last two years in office include people who will check his power instead of roll over and offer their belly to him. America will remain an international laughingstock, but at least we'll send some small signal that we aren't the abject fools we appear to be. The first real question is, will the GOP recover from being the party that allowed such an ignorant, immoral person to be installed as POTUS or will it crumble into ash? The second real question is how many of our youth will the Christian Church lose forever because their parents or grandparents sold their souls for a tiny ounce of political power?