Something for Everyone With Alarm Bells Ringing For All

Both sides had relatively good nights, but there are warning signs each side ignore at their own peril.

Democrats picked up the United States House of Representatives, flipped seven state legislative chambers, added six states where Democrats now control both the state legislature and Governor's Mansion, and the three states that put Trump over the finish line (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) all elected Democrat Governors and Senators.

But Republicans made gains in the Senate in places like Missouri, Florida, North Dakota, and Indiana while holding their own in Arizona. Likewise, the GOP held both the highly contested governor's mansions in Georgia and Florida.

Republicans will be happy because of judges and Democrats will be happy because they've taken the House and begun to undo some of the damage done at the state level by Barack Obama. But both sides should pay attention to real warning signs.

For Republicans, the mostly reliable suburbs fled the President. I have talked to a number of Republican consultants and pollsters over the preceding few days and all of them tell me that in close races the last week really shifted to the Democrats. They all think the President hurt some races by coming out claiming he could get rid of birthright citizenship by executive order.

One strategist told me it wasn't even the birthright citizenship issue in his polling that mattered. It was that the President thought he could do it by executive order. It just ratified a Democrat stereotype that he wants to be an autocrat.

Likewise, we now know several candidates polling trended towards the Democrats after the President visited urban areas in those states. It was smart of the Hawley campaign in Missouri to put Trump in the southern part of that state and it was smart of Kemp in Georgia to put Trump in the midstate. Ted Cruz may have won Texas, but several people tell me the President's presence in Houston mobilized Democrats significantly.

For Democrats, they have their own problems. They will not win Georgia, despite their claims. They lost Florida and could have won it. They are losing parts of the country that still matter even as they consolidate in urban areas. Their contemptuous attitude toward rural and exurban areas as well as their increasingly intolerant progressivism has hurt them and could hurt them moving forward.

Republicans got a beat down in suburban areas of very Republican states like Oklahoma. But Democrats lost Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Florida, and couldn't take Arizona because they lost the middle class and blue collar voters.

Both sides have real problems and they'll all relish their victories and ignore the problems. They should not.

Comments
No. 1-12
Bruce A Fouraker
Bruce A Fouraker

He is not actually changing the 14th Amendment; he is redefining the word jurisdiction. The Executive Order will then allow the Supreme Court to interpret if illegals are considered under US Jurisdicition.

duke492
duke492

The way to deal with anti-Trump suburbanites like Erik is to explain to them that President Trump is absolutely right about birthright citizenship and about most of his other controversial positions. He does not memorize the arguments; but he hears the briefing and understands the bottom line, which is more than can be said for his critics.

The Supreme Court has never ruled that children of illegal aliens have birthright citizenship. Congress has never passed a law to that effect. This is one of many policies which the bureaucracy has been allowed to arrogate to itself by lax oversight from elected officials. This is similar to something that Erik said months ago, asserting that President Trump does not understand that the FBI is a semi--independent Bureau. If the entire Justice Department is not absolutely accountable to the only elected official in the Executive Branch, then we have a police state. The President is accountable to the people through elections, and to the law through impeachment; but everyone in the Executive Branch is accountable to the President.

Here are a couple of good articles about birthright citizenship:

TUCKER A
TUCKER A

Agree with Eric. Both sides are trying to spin this as a win and they are deluding themselves about their weaknesses. The Dems lost all nine close races with their furthest left "progressive" candidates (e.g FL, GA , TX) but that is the direction which the party is moving and where the excitement comes from and money was directed. Meanwhile, whether one agrees with the reasoning or not the Reppublicans are losing suburban house districts which have been reliably red for decades and have seemingly always voted Republican based on their ecnomic best interests, and should have been safegiven the current economy. Yet, Trump's often dismaying and over the top rhetoric (which turns off many of his potential supporters who hold their noses and vote Reubican anyway), so alienated many of those voters, including overwhelming previously reliable married women, that they could not stomach the power which a Republican house would have provided and chose to send him a message. Unfortunately, he mistakes his wondefful political instincts and finger on the pulse of large segments of the electorate with infallibility , and thus he is unfortunately unlikely to temper his policies and messaging in a way to bridge that divide.AS eric points out, he has been great at mobilzing his base , but in the faraway 2020 may not have the fear of HIlarie to motivate those voters to vote for him and the rest of the ticket. And the Senate map is a lot less favorable.

DriverZn
DriverZn

The Alarm bell for me is this. Senate votes, total. Dem 56.8%, GOP 41.5%

When your only hold on power is the map lines. you are living on borrowed time. The GOP needs to expand it's appeal beyond farmland or it's living on borrowed time.

Battleship44
Battleship44

Sorry Erick. You and others continue to be wrong about Trump altering the birthright citizenship issue. I quote Mark Levin:

"Paul Ryan has no idea what he’s talking about. Today he said: “We, House Republicans and this President, are in total agreement on the need to stop illegal immigration. To secure our border and fix our laws,” Ryan said. “I think the smarter, faster solution here is to crack down on illegal immigration and we obviously support doing that. But, I’m a believer in the Constitution, I believe in interpreting the Constitution as it’s written, and that means you can’t do something like this via executive order.”

Not until the 1960’s has the Constitution been interpreted to convey birthright citizenship on the children of illegal aliens. And not due to any congressional statute or court ruling, but decisions by various departments and agencies of the federal bureaucracy. So, to be clear, the president would not be altering the 14th amendment or the intent of the 14th amendment or the original interpretation of the 14th amendment. On the contrary, the president would be taking charge of the executive branch and upholding the 14th amendment. And I challenge Paul Ryan to demonstrate otherwise. That’s not to say that activist judges and courts might not embrace Ryan’s knee-jerk position, but the president is right."