Though they have poured money into the race, to the tune of $8 million, Jon Ossoff has fallen below 40% in polls. He leads early voters at 50%, but the bulk of the vote will come on Election Day.
Meanwhile, Karen Handel leads the GOP, though the candidates are stacked up inside the margin of error. Handel is at 15% with Bob Gray and Dan Moody fighting it out for second place at 12% and 11% respectively. This is actually good news for Handel in that she and Dan Moody are tied at 13% for early voting, but Handel leads at 16% for Election Day voting.
Additionally, special election voting in Georgia skews towards senior citizens and that is magnified when there is rain on election day, which is expected this coming Tuesday. Karen Handel has double the support of senior citizens in the 6th of any of her Republican rivals. She is also winning the 45-64 year old demographic. Ossoff wins in all categories with the Democrats. More notably, while men are divided between Dan Moody and Judson Hill, Handel has captured the women’s vote. Women will turn out at a higher rate than men.
Full disclosure: last night on my radio program in Atlanta, I said I’d vote for Karen Handel if I lived in the 6th.