I've Changed My Mind on Third Parties and a 2020 Primary Challenge

The midterm data all suggest now is the time to shake up the political coalitions in America, if someone wants to try.

I want to be careful here. I am not endorsing the concept. But I have reconsidered my flat opposition to both the creation of a third party and a 2020 Presidential primary challenge. I think neither would be successful, but as I recently pointed out to someone, had John C. Frémont not run as a Republican in 1856, there would probably be no Lincoln in 1860.

For the first time, I think I finally see a path forward for a third party in the United States, but it may run through the 2020 Republican primaries.

If you pay attention in Florida, Senator-elect (that sounds awesome to write) Rick Scott got 45% of the Hispanic vote. Brian Kemp, the Governor-elect in Georgia, got 38% of the Hispanic vote in Georgia. In fact, Republicans did far better with the Hispanic vote than the media would have anyone believe is possible.

Across the country, another notable data point is that Republicans this year, without Trump on the ballot, actually increased their share of the vote among black voters. Most notably, the share of the vote of black men and Hispanic men increased for the GOP. The trend away from the Democrats by minority voters is almost entirely because of cultural issues. The Democrats' growing hostility to faith, conservative social values, etc. is a real Achilles heel for the party with minority voters, particularly Hispanic voters.

Concurrent to that, the white suburbs fled the GOP. High income white voters in the suburbs who have been reliably Republican have had enough of President Trump. Combine white suburban voters with black and Hispanic voters who will not go to the GOP because of Trump, but no longer feel at home in the Democratic Party, and there appears to be real room for a third party in the country now -- one that is viable unlike the Libertarians or Green parties.

I suspect this all runs through the GOP, however. Put up someone in the 2020 Republican Presidential primary against Donald Trump running on these sorts of themes and the person probably cannot win, but probably could start a third party movement as a sizable, though not a majority portion of Republicans tired of President Trump leave their political home and make it an acceptable place for black and Hispanic voters.

The GOP would become a mostly white rural party. The Democrats would become a mostly wealthy, urban white party. This new party, call it the Federalists, would be a coalition of former Republicans and minority Democrats with a healthy addition of evangelicals all of whom think the two parties have failed the country.

Again, I do not think such a pivot would be successful in 2020. I also think it would probably lead to President Trump's defeat, thereby making remaining Republican bitter towards the effort. But the data from the midterms shows pretty clearly the suburban Republicans and the socially conservative minority Democrats are all ready for a new political home. It would not be an immediate successful enterprise, but could potentially sustain itself so long as it makes it a party of ideas, and not one man's enterprise like the Reform Party of Ross Perot.

For those of us who are fiscally conservative, we'd also have to get used to the idea that this would not be a small government party, per se. But it could no doubt position itself as a fiscally responsible, free market party, which neither of the existing parties are.

I am pretty sure I would not support the effort. And I have said repeatedly I think the GOP is Trump's for the time being and there is no reason for a primary challenge. But the midterm data all very compelling suggest if someone wanted to try a go at resetting the American political coalitions, now would be the time.

Comments
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Jonah_Kyle
Jonah_Kyle

Here's the problem. If the Democrat Party takes over "all three branches of government" (as spookedly ignorantly defined by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez), the Presidency, House, and Senate, in 2020, they will immediately take the steps to solidify their hold on the government and make it nigh impossible for ANY entity to challenge the Democrats, particularly as election boards do not undergo any significant auditing. Keep in mind we lost this war already from the 90's on, and the goal now is to mitigate the significant damage that will be inflicted upon our children and grandchildren. I'm already starting a massive hard-copy initiative of preserving the factual history of the United Sates, as well as Western Civilization, before the truth gets completely wiped down the memory hole.

SC Welch
SC Welch

With Paul RINO as Speaker and Bait & Switch Mitch as Senate leader, we have accomplished too things. Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh. We don't have a wall because secret democRAT Paul RINO doesn't want it and has refused to bring it to a vote. And as soon as the election was over (two days ago), Mitch is again stonewalling and refusing to change the rules so that things can be done. With "leadership" like this, it's a flat out miracle that anything at all has been done. Trump's success has been without the aid of Congress, and because of Ryan and McConnell, we lost the House and came near losing the Senate. Before 2020, democRATS will have honed their voter fraud process and we could very well lose everything.

Steelman1
Steelman1

Erick, Donald Trump is doing everything he promised during his campaign, except build the wall. Some people will not vote for him again because of his invidious and childish tweets. They are opposed to his personality, not his agenda. I do not believe a viable third party can be founded on dislike for a president's personality.

TimCooper
TimCooper

I think we are seeing the dying gasps the ideals of our founding to be replaced by something else. Conservatives made the mistake of not playing the long game. We have lost any control of the pillars that shape culture and therefore political thought. Progressives control education, news media, and entertainment. The mainstays of conservative principles have been turned into weapons against us. If you are against illegal immigration, you are racist. If you are against big government...you want people to suffer, starve, die...pick based on issue. If you want to protect elections you somehow want to suppress the vote. I'll have to hand it to progressives, they have even made being white something to be ashamed of.

The electorate is fickle...They are being played. I get confused. Things that got republicans elected when Obama was president are now political liabilities. Immigration, Obamacare, lower taxes...The media has done a great job of shaping the issues.

I feel like a stranger in a strange land. Things that were sinful when I was a child are now civil rights. Individualism is something that is frowned upon for the collective. Diversity is thrown in my face as somehow a collective of brown and female faces elected by democrats are somehow inherently better or smarter than the alternatives.

The conservative message will have a very difficult time of gaining traction. I don't think its Trump. He is an easy excuse. I can't intellectually reconcile people that claim to be conservative, but vote for the likes of a Stacy Abrams because Kemp cozied up to Trump. These people are disingenuous at best.

jcblount
jcblount

President Trump has been the greatest force for positive change I have ever seen. People talk about him being a narcissist, that he is hard to get along with, etc. but that has more to do with media deception than the actual man. People are just not used to having someone tell you honestly to your face what you need to hear but don't want to hear.

Don't think for a minute that the reason Blacks and Hispanics are moving away from the democrats has nothing to do with President Trump. He is saying and doing what they have been wanting someone to do for a long time. He has lowered their unemployment rates to all time lows thus bringing them into the fold of being Americans as opposed to groups of victims. Their self esteem is rising with opportunity and they genuinely feel their President cares about their well being. Something they never got from democrats.

I could go on but I will let the record speak for itself. The glory days of the old GOP talking a big game and then doing nothing and using the same old excuses is over. Same for the Democrats. America has seen what can be done in a short time when somebody is willing to take criticism from all directions so that the people he surrounded himself with can work to accomplish the peoples business.

Trump 2020 and beyond....