The race in Georgia is too close to call and Democrats and Republicans are at parity in the early vote. Contrary to what people are saying, Republicans outpaced Democrats in early voting in 2016 and with this being a highly energized electorate, the GOP should be troubled that the Democrats are matching them in turnout.
The great news for Stacey Abrams is that she has a good lead with women overall, Democrats are more energized than Republicans, and her strategy of getting out new and independent voters appears to be paying off.
The good news for Brian Kemp is that he is winning white women by 63% and Republicans are keeping early voting competitive while the GOP tends to turn out big on Election Day. Right now there are a few counties that went Trump by a margin of 80% and those counties have already exceeded their entire 2014 vote in just early voting this year.
Ultimately I think Kemp can still avoid a runoff and win because Republicans tend to underperform most polling in Georgia by about 4%. Donald Trump, during this same time period, was polling at 47% and went on to win with 51%. Nathan Deal, in 2014, was polling at 48% in the final polling averages and went on to win with 52.8% of the vote.
The trend lines for Kemp are there to do the same. The Abrams comments about guns on The View are mobilizing more Republicans than Democrats. Her comments about the free market are pulling some libertarians towards Kemp as well.
Still, this is a neck and neck race and the GOP cannot take anything for granted. Oprah came in to campaign for Abrams on Thursday. President Obama will be here today. Vice President Pence came for Kemp and President Trump will be here Sunday in Middle Georgia.