Georgia Is Too Close to Call

The latest poll from the Atlanta Journal Constitution Has Abrams at 46.9% and Kemp at 46.7%.

The race in Georgia is too close to call and Democrats and Republicans are at parity in the early vote. Contrary to what people are saying, Republicans outpaced Democrats in early voting in 2016 and with this being a highly energized electorate, the GOP should be troubled that the Democrats are matching them in turnout.

The great news for Stacey Abrams is that she has a good lead with women overall, Democrats are more energized than Republicans, and her strategy of getting out new and independent voters appears to be paying off.

The good news for Brian Kemp is that he is winning white women by 63% and Republicans are keeping early voting competitive while the GOP tends to turn out big on Election Day. Right now there are a few counties that went Trump by a margin of 80% and those counties have already exceeded their entire 2014 vote in just early voting this year.

Ultimately I think Kemp can still avoid a runoff and win because Republicans tend to underperform most polling in Georgia by about 4%. Donald Trump, during this same time period, was polling at 47% and went on to win with 51%. Nathan Deal, in 2014, was polling at 48% in the final polling averages and went on to win with 52.8% of the vote.

The trend lines for Kemp are there to do the same. The Abrams comments about guns on The View are mobilizing more Republicans than Democrats. Her comments about the free market are pulling some libertarians towards Kemp as well.

Still, this is a neck and neck race and the GOP cannot take anything for granted. Oprah came in to campaign for Abrams on Thursday. President Obama will be here today. Vice President Pence came for Kemp and President Trump will be here Sunday in Middle Georgia.

Comments
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cynicalnerd
cynicalnerd

Where's the link? I'm curious in the R-D-I spread, the number of people polled and how was the poll run.

NWRED
NWRED

Georgia is a microcosm of this years election.. People can refuse to answer polls, and the polls can be targeted by group. People have to, GET OUT AND VOTE. There are too many lies, too much hidden hidden agenda, and not enough knowledge..

The Republicans are not perfect nor angels, but the Democrats have brought injury to themselves. Without details of every race, a straight Republican ticket is possible.

Democrats showed hate for due process, and innocent until proven guilty..

If the Democrats take control of the house, impeachment and investigation will be the order of the day. Some current members are pushing HARASSMENT AND GET IN THEIR FACE..

Democrats have gone after guns while ignoring other weapons.. Gun regulations stopped the mail bomber? A weapon is needed to stop brute force.

I hate the double standard in sexual matters.The y have a senator saved by a hung jury. Administrative fees for disaster charity went into campaign funds.

I can't go from conservative to more government control and socialism.

Clodagh
Clodagh

Who, in their right mind, would support Abrams? I am amazed more than 50 people would vote for her. Dear God, help us.

etbass
etbass

I cannot fathom why a libertarian would ever consider voting for a leftist. The key idea of libertarians is liberty. Nothing is more anti-liberty than a leftist. The GOP has factions that fight against moral evils, like gambling and drug legalization, but Democrats want to end freedom across the board. Weedies aren't libertarians, they are just want legal drugs.

I think a lot of libertarian ideas would work well if there wasn't a massive welfare state. The problem with allowing people to do whatever they want, whenever they want to their own bodies is that the rest of the taxpayers have to pay for it. If you set up a system where I am not subsidized people with food, housing, medical care, etc. who then use the money they have to buy lottery tickets, cigarettes whiskey and weed, I'm good with that. Right now, that isn't the case. If they ruin their life, we pick up the tab. We still allow a lot of that, and I am open to the argument that weed should be legal, if we aren't going into harder drugs that increase the crime and welfare problem much more than weed. The problem with most libertarians is that they won't acknowledge that those ideas don't work unless you first dismantle the welfare state. You can't eliminate all those laws and just pick up the tab for it.