Fox News Poll Has Doug Jones Ahead By 10 Points With One Twist

Fox did something a lot of other pollsters in Alabama are not doing

There is an enthusiasm gap in Alabama and, if Fox News's polling is to be believed, it is working to Doug Jones's advantage. He is ten points ahead in the latest Fox News poll and there is an interesting twist in the polling. Many of the polls showing Roy Moore ahead are not actually calling cell phones. Why? Because they are automated polls and automated calling is not allowed to call cell phones due to federal rules and regulations. Fox used a live pollster, called people on cell phones, and has Jones ahead by ten.

That is a pretty significant disparity. But we will find out tomorrow whether or not the pollster is right. One notable bit about the polling discrepancies is this:

I'd tend to discount this. Moore has been credibly accused of child molestation. Less people really want to admit to another person that they're voting for the (accused) child molester. Per, I tend to distrust outlier polls.

@ johnfs While live calling people probably skews the results somewhat as you said, I imagine not polling cell phones skews it way worse. I'm young and I don't have a landline. Only calling landlines is going to skew the poll towards older, more conservative voters.

Really? Moore looses by 10 points. Thank you Mr. Bannon.

Ridiculous Fox News poll that assumes blacks are 32% of the vote. My understanding

is blacks are 26% of the Alabama electorate.

It's also my understanding black turnout is usually about 2% higher than white turnout.

It's unlikely, but not out of the question, that blacks would be 32% in a low-turnout special.

Even if it is, it's probably not enough to save Jones.

The assumption is based on the fact that 32 percent of registered voters in AL are Black but such an assumption does not take voter turnout into consideration. However, that being said, this election is a Special Election and we really don't have a model to predict turnout. There are looks of mail-in ballots out there and statewide turnout is expected to be an anemic 25 percent. If Blacks turnout, Jones wins. If Whites Evangelicals turnout. Moore wins.


So let's wring our hands with glee that a pro-baby killer who will support any other debased cultural cause might win over a man who has been accused of sexual misconduct 40 years ago.


@BooneCtyBeek Right on. Has TDS really affected you this much Erick?

@DrRansom I'm just reporting on a poll.

True Erick, but your report of the poll lacks context (What is the spread in Party ID? Closer look reveals 44%R, 42%D, and 14% Indie). In Alabama, that has the the BS meter clicking wildly. R+2 in a State that the GOP won last year by over 25%-- I guess the pollsters in question are moonlighting for Mad Magazine and forgot which outlet the poll would be published under. That is the only way I can see their poll being so inaccurate in a way that makes sense.

I just hope the voters of Alabama go to the polls considering their own conscience, not everyone else's. I sure am glad to see this as the last day of this stuff.

I seem to remember hearing reports at least a week before the presidential election, from these smug "expert prognosticators" of Hillary's chances of winning the election, somewhere in the upper 90th percentile. Of course, as election night wore on into the following morning, according to the profanity laden Young Turks (LMAO!), along with the mumblings and exasperated sighs of Brian Williams and Rachel Maddow(again, LMAO!), the results told a "shockingly" different story. It's just as my father told me as a black kid growing up on the South Side of the Democratic Republic of Chicago, when I asked him who he voted for back in either '64 or '68. He wisely told me that who you vote for should be a personal choice, not one you share with anyone who asks you. Translation: None of their business. For the time that I was a voter, I took his advice.