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Democrats Just Picked Up a Seat That Went for Trump By 28 Points

Special elections are always special and never read more into them than is there, but this is a warning sign for the GOP

You have to be careful with special elections. People tend to over interpret them. But they can be warning signs. And House District 97 in Missouri is one such warning sign. That state house seat went for Donald Trump by 28 points in 2016. During the last regular election, the Republican incumbent, John McCaherty, had no Democrat challenger.

But McCaherty resigned to focus on a different race. His resignation forced a special election where a Democrat just beat the Republican by 108 votes. There were two other special elections wherein the Republican easily won. But what makes this race unique is that it involves a suburban area that swung heavily for Trump. If Democrats keep picking up these suburban areas they will not only take back Congress in 2018, but they'll be well on their way to taking back state legislatures in the run up to redistricting in 2020. This also raises the question of just how vulnerable Claire McCaskill is in Missouri.

Sounds like a candidate selection error again.

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Claire is vulnerable, according to my sources, and will likely lose. If you're so worried about special elections at the state level, that somehow turn out to be Democrat enclaves, you worry too much. Politics is always local, and the candidate did that, not the Trump factor. but national politics is not necessarily reflective on who votes for particular state office candidates. It's a whole different metric. Oh, by the way, Republicans, at least like me, learned, or I already knew, it gets nasty when people outside the region try to influence elections, so, lets let those people ask for help, next time, instead of having another repeat of an Alabama senate seat special election. Somehow, I think that will fall on deaf ears, though.

The roles are completely reverse and now it's Republicans facing a route just in time for redistricting, which can set up Democrats for a very "productive" run for the entire next decade. In other words: Well played, Republicans. Hope your five judges and a tax break was worth it.

Side Note: Trump won in large part by pulling in hundreds of thousands of Democrats. Don't be surprised when "Trump voters" revert to form and start electing any schmuck that promises them an entitlement.

In today's world of politics, how can anyone vote for a democommie? Makes me think of lots of voter fraud going on here. The truth of the evils of the DNC are being laid bare for all to see. How, how can anyone pull the lever for a democrat?

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Because they are "electing any schmuck that promises them an entitlement"! - FloridaMan nailed it. Unfortunately, this just might apply to a majority of this country - political parties, real reforms and constitutional principles don't seem to matter anymore. Sigh.

Erik is hyperventilating again. This is a state House race that few people car about and had no effect on the current balance of power in the state. This is a nothing burger (not used enough lately). 108 votes is not a landslide or a wave. The 2016 vote was a presidential election where voter turnout is much higher than a midterm election. Take a chill pill Erik, stop your Trump hate.

Erick continues to dig deep to see any opportunity to put something off on Trump. This small district, suburb of St. Louis, is infected with democrats and no doubt required the previous republican to be more left than right. Since the republican resigned in shame, it would be a gimmie for the left as it was. Dumb analysis again.

This is why I follow Erik. He's got an interesting take on current politics and society, and the comments section always brings out the loonies. It's important for me to be aware of the incoherent rage in this country.

Hyperventilating. This isn’t a district that reliably votes either way. The reason a state Republican won this district last time is only because he faced no Democrat challenger. But this one can easily go either way in an election but not considered one you look to for prestige trends. Democrats in Missouri are a shrinking minority but this is a district where they still have as much of a chance as Republicans.

*predictive. Not “prestige”.

I think people want balance in their governance. The gop controls the presidency and the houses. It's no surprise if they get voted out.

This is the cycle that benefited the republicans during Obama's years.

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There is also the factor where many people will "vote for the candidate, not for the party" in the naive expectation that a candidate will completely ignore the party and vote by conscience. Many people voted for Trump the candidate not Trump the Republican. These type of voters can just as easily vote for John Doe the candidate and not John Doe the Democrat. Since independents are likely to vote this way it could have been their vote that made the difference without really caring who the president is. I personally believe the party does matter which is why I will not will not ever vote for a Democrat no matter how much I like the person. Party discipline is a very strong motivator.

Republicans are beginning ning to seem like, since they have majority in the House, the Senate and have the White House it’s time for them to sir

It’s time for them to sit back and rest on their “laurels.”

Something you never saw demoncraps do. That’s why they held Congressional majoeprity in BOTH Houses for 40 years straight!

THAT is why our nation is in the situation it’s in today.

108 votes? I wonder how many were legal!