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Trump Walks from Iran Deal... What's Next?

This was a major decision in Trump’s second year, and he made the right move.

Four days ahead of a May 12th deadline, President Trump announced Tuesday that the U.S. will be backing out of the Iran Deal, and that new, tougher sanctions will be enacted to deter Iran’s development of nuclear weaponry.

Trump said, “If we do nothing, we know exactly what will happen. In just a short period of time, the world’s leading state-sponsor of terror will be on the cusp of acquiring the world’s most dangerous weapons. Therefore, I am announcing today that the United States will withdraw from the Iran Deal.”

The partisan purveyors of doom and gloom are out in force, carefully painting catastrophic scenarios that result in the exact outcome that the United States is trying to avoid; a nuclear Iran.

Obama released a statement saying this is a "serious mistake."

Many Iran Deal supporters (like the Washington Post Editorial Board) claim that the only two options are the Iran Deal... or war.

This isn’t anywhere close to true, and it's an unfair framework. Pumping a theocratic and despotic regime with cash while simultaneously relaxing oversight and accountability is most certainly not a path to peace. And it's not the only option besides war.

I detailed last week how the Iran Deal is deeply flawed. It puts Iran on an easy path toward nuclear weapon development with no realistic penalty structure.

New, stronger sanctions will be imposed outside of the Iran Deal, which will deescalate the flow of cash to Iran since the Iran Deal was implemented. Israel and Saudi Arabia are on board because the last thing they want is a nuclear Iran, which would drastically distort the balance of power in the Middle East and destabilize the region.

Even though our European allies will try to salvage the deal (initially, at least), the United States should still be able to build the necessary cohesion with Europe. If, however, the European Union and United Nations are stubborn to work on new sanctions with the U.S. post-Iran Deal, then we might see more bilateralism from Trump, a la his TPP exit (or Britain's Brexit). Putting all that aside - the likelihood of Europe salvaging the deal without U.S. participation is slim.

Trump continued, “In a few moments, I will sign a presidential memorandum to begin reinstating U.S. nuclear sanctions on the Iranian regime. We will be instituting the highest level of economic sanction. Any nation that helps Iran in its quest for nuclear weapons could also be strongly sanctioned by the United States. America will not be held hostage to nuclear blackmail.”

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani says Iran would like to keep a deal in place with Europe, Russia, and China if possible. Regardless of Rouhani's defiant rhetoric, he understands that the Iran Deal is out of his control at this point. The Rouhani administration supported and negotiated the deal from its beginning, and with the deal beginning to crumble, Rouhani is running PR damage control on the home front.

On Laura Ingraham’s show Tuesday night, National Security Advisor John Bolton said, “What President Trump did by pulling out of the deal is get back to what the real objective should be: stopping this dangerous regime from threatening us and our friends around the world with nuclear weapons.”

This was a major decision in Trump’s second year – another significant reversal of Obama’s legacy – and he made the right move despite pressure from Europe, the U.N., and an American public that was deeply divided (or seemingly apathetic) about the issue.

The Western Alliance has been the bedrock of world security and stability for decades. It is/was an American controlled asset. Trump has dumped all over that and shown Europe that they must be more independent of the US in future, no matter who the US president is. Xi Jinping knows that his cards have improved a lot in the last 48 hours.

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It's a party in Moscow too. The Western alliance has been broken up and oil prices are set to go through the roof when Trump gets the war he's been steering us toward.

Oil prices jumped 30 cents in Michigan today, if this keeps up during the summer and Democrats are smart October is going to be a bloodbath. I mean I can just see the ads now....Republican tax breaks go to higher gas prices while billionares bank accounts continue to explode. And you know what? They should lose. This whole thing is pathetic.

By then:

  • Obamacare premiums for 2019 will have been sent out to voters (with skyrocketing premiums);
  • Kim Jon Ung will have made Trump look like a Chump for giving him a priceless photo op in exchange for nothing at all;
  • Iran (if they are smart) will mess things up enough in the Middle East to make gas prices double here;
  • Mueller will have added to his current collection of convictions and guilty pleas;
  • Apple will have given about a ten trillion dollars back to their shareholders making everybody in Northern California rich (while average Joe saw virtually no tax cut);
  • To complete the nightmare scenario, the economy, running red-hot for so long, will take a breather and cool down a bit, chopping a chunk off everybody's 401k;

I'm not sure if all of those things will come to be, but it's a minefield to walk through, that's for sure.

The protest from Iran is quite telling on who was advantaged by the Iran deal. If the "deal" had placed serious restrictions on Iran they would have been very happy to see Trump pull out and they are not happy!

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