Fox News host Tucker Carlson made a startling prediction recently that if the Democrats take over Congress in the upcoming 2018 midterm elections that Australian-style gun confiscation is coming our way. But gun rights activists may not need to worry too much at this point.
Not because Tucker is wrong about the left’s desires. It’s silly to doubt that Carlson is right that the Democrats would attempt such a move. Remember, Hillary Clinton seemed open to looking at the idea during the 2016 election. And following the most recent school shooting, Democrats have proposed specific gun bans in much the same way that Australia banned semiautomatic firearms several years ago. So unless you believe that Donald Trump would stand resolutely against Democrat and media pressure on the issue (fat chance), there’s great reason to believe Carlson is right about his prediction.
The reason this seems to be an unnecessary fear is because the odds of Democrats taking over all of Congress (House and Senate) are long. Very long. While historical trends, special elections, and generic ballot polls point to a blue wave coming in November, the reality may not be so rosy for the Party of Pelosi.
While the House of Representatives could reasonably be predicted to fall into Democrat hands, it is distinctly possible, even probable at this point, that not only will Republicans hold the Senate, but they will actually gain seats there. Here’s the hard data from Axios:
I live in one of those states – Indiana. Senator Joe Donnelly has, throughout his political career, fallen backwards into victories. It is unlikely to be easy on him this time, battling with a Republican challenger who already holds a Congressional seat (be it Todd Rokita or Luke Messer).
History would tell us that at least a couple of these races will not go exactly as it appears from this polling, this far out. Still, there are other races not listed here where the Democrat is vulnerable. Michigan’s Debbie Stabenow isn’t safe, nor is Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin, or Ohio’s Sherrod Brown.
Should the economy continue strengthening (though Trump is doing his best to undermine that growth with his tariff policy), the anti-Trump messaging that seemed the go-to-strategy for vulnerable Dems just a few months ago may not do the trick.
If it all plays out this way, far from advancing any agenda of their own, the Democrats will have to take solace in merely grinding Trump’s to a halt under the gavel of Nancy Pelosi.