Republicans gain ground in generic House ballot

Republicans make up ground; as Democrats now lead in generic House ballot by only two percent

According to the latest Monmouth University poll, Democrats now lead their Republican counterparts 47-45 in a generic House ballot.

The recent data showed a big shift among voters from December when Democrats led the GOP, 51-36. The recent upswing for the majority party is likely due to the recent passage and benefits of the Republican tax plan that was signed into law by President Trump.

Since that bill, many businesses have given their employees bonuses and increased minimum wages. This has likely attributed to the net positive for Republicans as more and more voters feel their pocketbooks growing. As James Carville famously said, "it's the economy, stupid."

"The president devoted a significant amount of the State of the Union address touting a growing economy and his new tax plan. While there is still some way to go to really win over the public, it looks like the needle has moved in the Republicans' direction since passage of the tax bill," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Despite the recent uptick for Republicans in a generic House race, the GOP should tread lightly. Congress has historically low approval ratings. Also, the tide of history is pushing against the GOP. Since 1946, the President's party in midterm elections have lost an average of 25 House seats. This fall, Democrats need to flip 24 seats to retake the people's chamber. Additionally, in 16 of the last 18 midterm elections, the President's party has lost House seats. That includes wave elections by the opposing party in 2006, 2010, and 2014.

The GOP does have a slight advantage in the House. With all 435 seats up for grabs, 230 House districts voted for President Trump in 2016 while only 205 went for Hillary Clinton. The looming question remains, can Republicans walk a fine line between selling popular policies and a deflecting from a President that has an approval rating that hovers between the upper 30s and low 40s? The Muller investigation , the President tweeting, changes in the economy, memos, culture wars, and more representatives retiring, nine months is a lifetime in politics.The State of the Union feels like a years ago and that happen, Tuesday. A lot can still change for both parties between now and November.

Comments
No. 1-7
richronnie
richronnie

As many have observed by witnessing the well of congress this week on President Trumps Address to the nation. The democrats are the sit on their hands childish do nothing party No respect even for the American citizen taxpayer who pays their salaries. But they will support & give away our treasure to any illegal foreign national. VOTE them out in 2018;

mlindroos
mlindroos
etbass
etbass said: Not surprising at all. Good policy that nets real results for the average person is always going to be good for the party that implemented it. That still leaves us too far out to make a prediction about November. I expect that Trump will be much less of a drag on the GOP ticket than many in the media think. People have already shown that even though they may not like Trump, or even approve of him, they still like his policies and are willing to vote for him and for people that align with him. Obama had the opposite problem. He had fairly high approval ratings, but his party was still wiped out in the midterms, both times. That was a function of the approval being personally to Obama, not to his policies, which were unpopular. Trump is the opposite. It is not an unreasonable conclusion to draw that the opposite result could happen as well. Trump's numbers do not translate like any politician we have ever seen. He won despite being the least favorable major party nominee since they started measuring that. Enthusiasm is a big motivator, but I just don't see how the Democrats are motivating the average American. The lefties, sure. But there aren't enough lefties to win an election, no matter how many you turn out. (Just like there aren't enough real conservatives either). Both parties have to win people that are shades of political gray and somewhat disengaged from the daily grind that us political junkies follow. That doesn't mean these people are moderates or centrists, they are just people that may align more with Paul Ryan than Ted Cruz, or with Joe Manchin rather than Elizabeth Warren. Getting those people to show up and vote is how you win elections.

etbass, can you cite any polls backing up your apparent belief that Obama's policies were unpopular whereas people really like Trump's policies..?

Besides, what is so different about midterm elections? Yes, recent experience suggests it is true that Democrats are much less likely to vote in midterm elections if their own party controls the White House. The gap essentially disappears whenever a Republican is president, though.

etbass
etbass

Not surprising at all. Good policy that nets real results for the average person is always going to be good for the party that implemented it. That still leaves us too far out to make a prediction about November. I expect that Trump will be much less of a drag on the GOP ticket than many in the media think. People have already shown that even though they may not like Trump, or even approve of him, they still like his policies and are willing to vote for him and for people that align with him. Obama had the opposite problem. He had fairly high approval ratings, but his party was still wiped out in the midterms, both times. That was a function of the approval being personally to Obama, not to his policies, which were unpopular. Trump is the opposite. It is not an unreasonable conclusion to draw that the opposite result could happen as well. Trump's numbers do not translate like any politician we have ever seen. He won despite being the least favorable major party nominee since they started measuring that. Enthusiasm is a big motivator, but I just don't see how the Democrats are motivating the average American. The lefties, sure. But there aren't enough lefties to win an election, no matter how many you turn out. (Just like there aren't enough real conservatives either). Both parties have to win people that are shades of political gray and somewhat disengaged from the daily grind that us political junkies follow. That doesn't mean these people are moderates or centrists, they are just people that may align more with Paul Ryan than Ted Cruz, or with Joe Manchin rather than Elizabeth Warren. Getting those people to show up and vote is how you win elections.

BenjaminD
BenjaminD

We shall see how things go for the next few months. It's a promising poll but people have short attention spans and things change. Remember that the dems are also coming off of an unpopular shut down fight so it's possible that their numbers are lowered while republicans are inflated. I can easily see them reverting back if they take on an unpopular issue like welfare reform.

georgiaheretic
georgiaheretic

More telling was the CBS polling from the SOTU 71% Independents approved of the speech as well as 43% Democrats. You couldn't tell that from the sour puss Democrats at the SOTU. Also, the ACLU pointed out that at the SOTU President Trump used the word America 80 times, the horror.