Some states are losing residents. Is it just a red state vs. blue state thing or could there be more to the trend?

Having lived in some of the bluest states in the union, it is no mystery to me why people would like to leave them. Property taxes, housing prices, traffic and a host of other things were behind my family's decision to move to a different part of the country. I was looking forward to moving to a place that provided more personal freedom and making a deliberate choice to live somewhere that aligned more with my own ideals.

It seems like a trend is emerging that many are moving to escape the economic shackles of high tax, high cost of living states. According to United Van Lines people are leaving these states at the highest rate:

  1. Illinois
  2. New Jersey
  3. New York
  4. Connecticut
  5. Kansas
  6. Massacheusetts
  7. Ohio
  8. Kentucky
  9. Utah
  10. Wisconsin

Much is made of the top 4 being very deep blue states, but the rest is a mix of red and purple. It's also the same with the states people are moving to according to United:

  • Idaho
  • South Dakota
  • South Carolina
  • North Carolina
  • Alabama
  • Nevada
  • Colorado
  • Oregon
  • Washington

Another mix of red, purple and blue. So is it purely a red state versus blue state phenomenon? Or is there more to the picture? Every four years The Cato Institute does an in-depth analysis of 230 policies that are indicative of personal and economic freedom for each of the 50 states.

It is somewhat counterintuitive. For example Mississippi is one of the 26 Republican state government trifectas. Yet their Cato Freedom score is 36 out of 50, with 50 being the worst. New Hampshire, another Republican trifecta, has the best score in the nation. So not all red states are created equal. In fact, Ohio, a Republican trifecta since 2010, has a score of 35. While Colorado, a Democratic trifecta until 2014, has a freedom score of 10.

When you look at the indicators of economic and personal freedom, some of the migration patterns start to make a lot more sense. The states people are leaving generally have lower fredom scores than the states people are moving to. Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Kentucky are all in the bottom ten on the freedom scale. Ohio, Massachusetts and Wisconsin score at 35, 33 and 27 respectively. The outliers are Kansas and Utah who score at 16 and 20.

All of the destination states score at 23 or better on the scale with the exception of Vermont, Oregon and Washington. However, if you understand where those states in-migration comes from, largely New York and California, it makes sense. California and New York are 49 and 50 on the list. If you move to place at 40 or better, it feels like you have a lot more freedom.

Having lived in 49 and 50 with a dose of 44, I'll take 22 any day of the week. And if states want to attract people, work on economic freedom, since it breeds business and innovation. For all of you leaving the bottom 10, remember, you did it for a reason. Don't come to number 22 and vote for all the stupid, freedom limiting policies that made you leave that last place. Or pretty soon, you won't have anywhere to go.

I think we are missing a few bits of information.

Off the top of head I wonder how many of these people are retired. I noticed that a lot of the move out states are in the north (new England) while a lot of the move to states are in the south. Generally speaking retired people often go places with lower cost of living.

I'm always wary of these kinds of studies. It seems like you can take these list of states and draw whatever conclusion you want from them.

I live in CT btw and the biggest reason people move out of state are jobs. Ct was built on manufacturing but that dried up decades ago. And I imagine most young professionals would rather seek their fortune elsewhere.

Only 3 of the 10 are southern states, 4 if you count Nevada. Like most things, there are a ton of factors influencing it. High taxes and nanny governments are a reason. Business freedom leads to jobs and influx of people. Fracking, weather, immigration, manufacturing, technology, and many other factors also impact it. Freedom is no doubt a big factor, but not the sole factor.

A real analysis would involve noting the changes in population flux related to freedom. For example, is there a correlation between an uptick in immigration with an increase in freedom, on a state by state basis? Is there a correlation between out migration and a reduction in freedom by state as time goes. That would negate some of the other factors that might skew the results.

More proof that most humans don't really know(they believe they know) what or why they're doing what they do (Jer. 10:23).

We moved from a cold state to a warm state. Sometimes life is as simple as that!

"Generally speaking retired people often go places with lower cost of living." Places where property taxes are lower and pensions aren't taxed so onerously have lower cost of living indices and higher freedom scores. Think it through.

I’ve watched my adopted state turn purple and now almost blue as the result of outsiders who move here and promptly vote to make their new home look just like their old one. It’s ruining a state long known for its natural beauty, freedom, liberty and small government. Housing is now unaffordable, roadways are choked with traffic, taxes are going up, crime has increased and pot is legal. What a country!

The bottom four

  • Nevada
  • Colorado
  • Oregon
  • Washington
    Have legal recreational marijuana

29 states have legalized medical marijuana. California also legalized recreational and their outmigration is still quite high.

There are always personal reasons. The Cato study measures economic and personal freedom. Economic freedom, things like right to work and lower levels of regulation attract business. So I completely agree on the jobs front.