Another special election, another chance to say "If this district is upended, the GOP is toast in the midterms. Can you hear me yawn? See me roll my eyes?
First, even if Lamb wins, it does not say a lot about the political views of Pennsylvania voters. He is pro-life, pro-2A, supports much of the President's economic and jobs agenda and has been vocal about not supporting Nancy Pelosi to lead the party in the House.
He's what we used to call a Blue Dog Dem and exactly the kind of candidate the DNC has said they can no longer accept. No fundamental shift towards the progressive-socialist mindset will have occured in PA-18. Take a deep breath everyone.
Next, I lived through the GA-06 election when what's his name was supposed to give Representative Karen Handel a run for her money. She beat him by six points. I heard all the blue wave predictions about Texas. Those didn't really pan out either. My only question now, is why are we listening. Not to the media, but to the polls themselves.
I have a theory, so I'll just throw it out. People are not being honest in election polling. Or not participating by saying they are "undecided". We saw the industry scratch it's head following the 2016 election and continue to struggle ever since to match predictions and outcomes with a reasonable margin of error.
Why is this my theory? It's quite simple. After an entire presidential cycle of being called deplorable, white supremacists who hate minorities and operate with limited intelligence, why would anyone feel comfortable expressing support to some for a Republican candidate to some person on the phone when those are the attributes flung at you?
After NSA data collection and in home devices laughing at you as you watch Conservative ideas being suppressed across every digital platform, couldn't you be just a little leery of expressing ideas that our electronic data collection overlords find untenable? Forgive me while I loosen my tinfoil hat, but when someone as intelligent and articulate as Ben Shapiro requires hundreds of thousands of dollars to give a speech so the Berkeley campus won't burn down, what is the average Joe supposed to think?
I have two predictions about the midterms. Nobody knows what is going to happen and trusted election polling methodologies will become even less accurate as we move in to 2020. In a world where it's okay to 'punch a Nazi" and everyone who doesn't agree with the progressive left is a Nazi, expecting honest answers to simple questions may be to high an expectation.