VALE going up, follow china

china building 400,000 ton ore ships.

China will not invest unless there is a reason. Just my humble opinion.

There is very little correlation between China launching a ship and Vale going back towards its 200-day moving average and therefore giving back a whole of of one's return, percentage wise. So in the near- to medium-term, Vale risks giving up 22% of the ground its made. Vale is a volatile commodity-stock that can stretch even higher before going lower, but the risks mentioned are still there. So some subscribers will choose to sell. Others may cut their positions in half and place stops on the remaining shares near breakeven, etc. But at least I've made them aware of the near- to medium-term risks they have. The launching of the ship, as great as that is, doesn't notify them of any of their risks in the stock. Long-term, I believe Vale can go much further. But its risk-to-reward presently is out of whack. Also, we don't buy or sell off of news events. Also, I don't use ship building as a gauge because if you follow its history, they build the most of them towards the latter part of the expansion and close to the next pullback. Why? Because even they don't seem to know when its coming. And they get caught up in the "now" and in the "past".

But I do appreciate you sharing the video and I do find that interesting. Glad you're contributing here.

Agreed. I guess it would have been wise of me to be more detailed in explaining. Technically you are correct but China will need to support the growth. My humble opinion is some well positioned China stocks will do well. I hold them for the long haul and don’t look for a quick trade. I am making the assumption those who follow you do the same😀

Thanks for you responds.
RH

You’re welcome.

Yes, we don’t trade. We make true investments that take time. 2-4 years typically.

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