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The ETFs For Bonds, Gold, Utilities Are Tarnished, Commodities And The Dollar Try To Rebound

“Flight to safety” investors concentrate on the exchange-traded funds associated with U.S. Treasury bonds, gold bullion and utility stocks, but you can also trade commodities and the dollar.

The Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) traded to its 2017 high of $129.56 on Sept. 7 then declined to $123.03 on Oct. 6, just above its 200-day simple moving average of $122.96.

The Gold Bullion ETF (GLD) set its 2017 high of $128.32 on Sept. 7 then crashed to $119.78 on Oct. 6, staying above its 200-day simple moving average of $118.87.

The Utility Stock ETF (XLU) set its all-time intraday high of $55.90 on Sept. 11 then traded as low as $52.57 on Sept. 28 establishing a trading range.

The Junk Bond ETF (JNK) set its 2017 high of $37.46 on July 26 then traded as low as $36.68 on Aug. 8, establishing a trading range.

The Commodities ETF (GSG) set a post-election low of $13.16 on June 21, and this heavily-weighted to energy futures fund traded as high as $15.14 on Sept. 25.

The Dollar ETF (UUP) traded to its post-election low of $23.66 on Sept. 8 and rebounded to as high as $24.47 on Oct. 6.

The 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

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The U.S. Treasury 30-Year Bond ETF trades like a stock using the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, which a basket of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 20+-Years to 30-Years. As a stock-type investment it never matures and interest income is converted to periodic dividend payments.

The weekly chart for the Treasury Bond ETF ($123.59 on Oct. 6) remains negative with the ETF below its five-week modified moving average of $125.63 and is just above its 200-week simple moving average of $122.73 or the “reversion to the mean”, which had been a magnet between the week of Nov. 25 and the week of May 12, when the average was $120.63. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading slipped to 52.34 last week down from 62.94 on Sept. 29.

Investment Strategy: Buy weakness to my annual value level of $105.77. Sell strength to my monthly and quarterly risky levels of $127.87 and $130.26, respectively.

The Gold Bullion ETF (GLD)

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Investors can trade gold bullion like a stock using the SPDR Gold Shares ETF.

The weekly chart for the Gold Bullion ETF ($121.09 on Oct. 6) is negative with the ETF below its five-week modified moving average of $122.70 and above its 200-week simple moving average of $117.88, which is the “reversion to the mean” last tested during the week of July 21 when the average was $118.29. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading declined to 68.13 last week down from 77.65 Sept. 29.

Trading Strategies: Buy weakness to my semiannual value level of $108.60. Sell strength to my monthly and quarterly risky levels of $126.03 and $128.86, respectively.

The Utilities ETF (XLU)

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Investors seeking the safety of dividends can trade the utilities ETF, which is a basket of 28 utility stocks.

The weekly chart for the Utilities Sector ETF ($53.43 on Oct. 6) is negative with the ETF below its five-week modified moving average of $53.80. The 200-week simple moving average is the “reversion to the mean” at $46.31. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading declined to 61.17 last week down from 71.34 on Sept. 29.

Investment Strategy: Buy weakness to my annual value level of $50.72. Sell strength to my monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels of $56.35, $57.22 and $57.58, respectively.

SPDR Bloomberg Barclay’s High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)

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Investors should avoid junk bonds as they correlate more to stocks than U.S. Treasuries.

The weekly chart for the junk bond ETF ($37.18 on Oct. 6) is positive with the ETF just above its five-week modified moving average of $37.15. The ETF is below its 200-week simple moving average or the “reversion to the mean” of $37.74 last tested during the week of Nov. 14 when the average was $40.08. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 61.33 last week up from 56.52 on Sept. 29.

Investment Strategy: Buy weakness to my semiannual value level of $35.47. My quarterly and monthly pivots are $36.74 and $37.57, respectively. Sell strength to my annual risky level of $43.98.

iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (GSG)

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The commodity ETF is heavily-weighted to energy by about 60%.

The weekly chart for the commodity ETF ($14.63 on Oct. 6) is positive but overbought with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average of $14.59. The ETF is well below its 200-week simple moving average or the “reversion to the mean” of $20.15, last tested during the week of July 11, 2014 when the average was $33.40. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading slipped to 84.16 last week down from 86.51 on Sept. 29, still above the overbought threshold of 80.00.

Investment Strategy: Buy weakness to my monthly and quarterly value levels of $13.87 and $12.40, respectively. Sell strength to my annual risky level of $22.73.

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (UUP)

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Investors interested in buying the dollar versus a basket of currencies trade this ETF. It includes below long the dollar vs. Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.

The weekly chart for the bullish dollar ETF ($24.37 on Oct. 6) is positive with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average of $24.15. The ETF is also above its 200-week simple moving average or the “reversion to the mean” of $24.31. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 25.31 last week up from 15.32 on Sept. 29 moving above the oversold threshold of 20.00.

Investment Strategy: Buy weakness to my annual value level of $22.89. My monthly and quarterly pivots are $24.03 and $24.95, respectively. Sell strength to my semiannual risky level of $27.01.

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