Consumer Discretionary, Technology Lead as REITs, Utilities Set 2018 Highs

Materials, industrial, financial and transports remain rated underweight - A warning on Infrastructure spending.

Each of 11 S&P sectors has its own ETF: 4 are rated Underweight, 1 is rated Equal-Weight and 6 are rated Overweight.

The consumer discretionary sector remains in the lead with a year-to-date gain of 11.8% with technology in second place up 11.1% year to date.

REITs, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, utilities, healthcare and technology are rated overweight. Energy remains rated equal-weight. Materials, industrial, financial and transports remain rated underweight.

Establishing weightings based up their weekly charts is the backbone of an Asset Allocation Model.

· An Underweight Sector Has A Negative Weekly Chart. A negative weekly chart shows the ETF below its five-week modified moving average with declining or oversold weekly momentum (12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic).

· An Equal-Weight Sector Has A Neutral Weekly Chart. A neutral weekly chart shows the ETF below its five-week modified moving average with rising weekly momentum, or above its five-week modified moving average with declining weekly momentum.

· An Overweight Sector Has A Positive Weekly Chart. A positive weekly chart shows the ETF above its five-week modified moving average with rising or overbought weekly momentum.

SPDR Dow Jones REIT ETF (RWR) – Overweight

The REIT ETF ended last week well above its 200-week simple moving average of $91.40 and set its 2018 high of $95.46 on July 6.

Buy weakness to my new monthly and quarterly value levels of $89.33 and $86.33, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to my semiannual and annual risky levels of $102.40 and $113.66, respectively.

Materials Sector SPDR Fund(XLB) – Underweight

This ETF remains below my annual pivot of $59.99.

Buy weakness to my semiannual value level of $54.12 and reduce holdings on strength to my monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels of $58.99, $59.99 and $63.46, respectively.

Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLI) – Underweight

This ETF remains well below its annual risky level of $79.31.

Buy at my semiannual pivot of $72.37 and reduce holdings on strength to my monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels of $77.53, $79.31 and $81.32, respectively.

Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY) – Overweight

This ETF remains above my annual pivot of $107.96.

Buy weakness to my semiannual and annual pivots of $109.52 and $107.96, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to my quarterly pivot of $110.31, and to my monthly risky level of $116.14.

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLP) – Overweight

This ETF ended last week above its 200-week simple moving average of $51.81 but is well below my annual risky level of $63.34.

Buy weakness to my quarterly value level of $51.74 and reduce holdings on strength to my monthly, semiannual and annual risky levels of $53.57, $59.45 and $63.34, respectively.

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE) – Equal-Weight

This ETF is above its 200-week simple moving average of $70.84 well below my annual risky level of $88.91.

Buy weakness to my quarterly and semiannual value levels of $74.16 and $43.74, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to my monthly and annual risky levels of $76.99 and $88.91, respectively.

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF) – Underweight

Buy weakness to the 200-week simple moving average of $22.04 and reduce holdings on strength to my semiannual, monthly and quarterly risky levels at $27.49, $28.84 and $31.55, respectively. My annual pivot is $26.77 with its June 2007 high of $30.83.

Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLU) – Overweight

This ETF ended last week below its annual risky level of $54.46.

Buy weakness to my quarterly and monthly value levels of $49.98 and $48.52, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to my semiannual and annual risky levels of $53.86 and $54.46, respectively.

Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLV) – Overweight

This ETF remains below my annual risky level of $88.09.

Buy weakness to my monthly and quarterly value levels of $85.86 and $85.48 and reduce holdings on strength to my annual and semiannual risky levels of $88.09 and $91.23, respectively.

Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK) – Overweight

The weekly chart remains overbought with the ETF well above my annual value level at $60.55.

Buy weakness to my semiannual and annual value levels of $67.19 and $60.55, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to my monthly and quarterly risky levels of $71.30 and $74.76, respectively.

iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT) – Underweight

This ETF remains well below its annual risky level of $204.61.

Buy weakness to my semiannual pivot at $181.19 and reduce holdings on strength to my monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels of $202.91, $204.61 and $215.57, respectively.



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