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Five Star + Northern League a Projected Majority

Senate returns now project a Five Star plus Northern League outright majority.

Note: This is a live blog but with newest information at the bottom.

Exit Estimates

Note the slightly higher estimates for the Northern League than Forza Italia.

If it's a hung election, I believe the existing coalitions will die and new ones will form.

Some Returns Coming In

Returns are now coming in, and some people are shocked.

From Bloomberg

Top Lega (Northern League) official Giancarlo Giorgetti speaking from party HQ:

"These are historic results for the Lega. We're picking up votes from North to South. We had 4 percent in 2013, now projections say 16 to 17 percent, perhaps more. We'll discuss things with our allies but this is a historic moment for the Lega."

Prior totals were for the Senate only where the Voting age is 25. Lower parliament voting age is 18. House projections now look similar according to La7, via Bloomberg

  • Five Star 32.1%
  • Democratic Party 19%
  • Northern League 17.5%
  • Forza Italia 14.1%

Shocking Defeat

Matteo Renzi will comment on the outcome once final data are in. He did, however, admit defeat: "This is a very clear and definite defeat for us. It is a result that is very clearly negative.''

Bloomberg FX editor Marco Bertacche made this comment. emphasis mine.

"We'll monitor reaction from the losers (likely Democratic Party secretary and former PM Renzi) and hints at post-vote coalition talks from the winners (Salvini, Five Star's Di Maio)"

Most of mainstream media is still in denial, referring to the Silvio Berlusconi-led center right.

Berlusconi looks doomed to come in fourth place.

Senate Projections

From Marco Bertacche

A new seats' projection from RAI/Opinio Italia for the 315-member Senate is out -- no coalition has a majority; eventual League-Five Star would have a majority.

Live Results

Here is a good Live Results feed.

Translation as of 8:26 PM central: "Triumph M5S, League exploit: populist forces over 50%. Renzi's Democratic Party collapses. Center-right the most voted"

Latest lead-in chart is from TGSky 24 Projection. Anecdotes in White are mine.

No Surprise Here

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

One possibility now perhaps is Berlusconi stabs in the front Lega Nord (that against Berlusconi's putative expectations seems to be doing slightly better than its coalition partner which might bestow upon it an unwelcome ascendancy) and form a majority government with Cinque Stelle (around which he should be able to run rings, the sly old viper).

Not Berlusconi's choice! If M5S + LN agree to a coalition there is nothing Berlusconi can do about it but whine. The reason I suggested it is precisely because LN feared backstabbing

Berlusconi only has a choice if they reach a majority, perhaps requiring PD to play along

I would expect Berlusconi to make a pact with the devil if it saw him return to power. It is of course true that he might be outmanoeuvered by Lega Nord and left out in the cold - but he is the most formidable of the operators on the stage at present.

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