Five Star + Northern League a Projected Majority

Senate returns now project a Five Star plus Northern League outright majority.

Note: This is a live blog but with newest information at the bottom.

Exit Estimates

Note the slightly higher estimates for the Northern League than Forza Italia.

If it's a hung election, I believe the existing coalitions will die and new ones will form.

Some Returns Coming In

Returns are now coming in, and some people are shocked.

From Bloomberg

Top Lega (Northern League) official Giancarlo Giorgetti speaking from party HQ:

"These are historic results for the Lega. We're picking up votes from North to South. We had 4 percent in 2013, now projections say 16 to 17 percent, perhaps more. We'll discuss things with our allies but this is a historic moment for the Lega."

Prior totals were for the Senate only where the Voting age is 25. Lower parliament voting age is 18. House projections now look similar according to La7, via Bloomberg

  • Five Star 32.1%
  • Democratic Party 19%
  • Northern League 17.5%
  • Forza Italia 14.1%

Shocking Defeat

Matteo Renzi will comment on the outcome once final data are in. He did, however, admit defeat: "This is a very clear and definite defeat for us. It is a result that is very clearly negative.''

Bloomberg FX editor Marco Bertacche made this comment. emphasis mine.

"We'll monitor reaction from the losers (likely Democratic Party secretary and former PM Renzi) and hints at post-vote coalition talks from the winners (Salvini, Five Star's Di Maio)"

Most of mainstream media is still in denial, referring to the Silvio Berlusconi-led center right.

Berlusconi looks doomed to come in fourth place.

Senate Projections

From Marco Bertacche

A new seats' projection from RAI/Opinio Italia for the 315-member Senate is out -- no coalition has a majority; eventual League-Five Star would have a majority.

Live Results

Here is a good Live Results feed.

Translation as of 8:26 PM central: "Triumph M5S, League exploit: populist forces over 50%. Renzi's Democratic Party collapses. Center-right the most voted"

Latest lead-in chart is from TGSky 24 Projection. Anecdotes in White are mine.

No Surprise Here

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

First Real Returns Evaluated: Five Star + Northern League Approach 50%

I expect Northern League's numbers fluctuate a lot more than other parties as the results are being calculated. They have very uneven support across Italian regions.

Totals so far are for the Senate only - Voting age is 25. As I am typing House looks the same: Five Star 32.1%
Democratic Party 19%
Northern League 17.5%
Forza Italia 14.1%

"I spent my lifetime not being careless. Women and childern can be careless... but not men"

“Don’t ever take sides against Five Star again”

Merkel must be breathing a sigh of relief she is still Chancellor. And oh yeah, a coalition formed.

LN is at 18.5%, nice!

The people who vote are getting antsy- time to take their vote away.

5Star + Forza Italia a projected majority too. Whether that is more or less likely that Lega Nord joining with 5Star or all three banding together I do not know but the key point about coalition formation is that if the numbers work, it is possible and only ideology, personalities and opportunism can get in the way. If the numbers do not deliver a majority, then typically a coalition will fail.