US will Overtake Russia to Become Top Oil Producer by 2023

The International Energy Association (IEA) says the US will overtake Russia and become the leading oil producer by 2023.

U.S. crude production is expected to reach a record of 12.1 million barrels a day in 2023, up about 2 million barrels a day from this year, said the International Energy Agency, which advises governments and corporations on industry trends. American oil output will surge past Russia, currently the world’s largest crude producer at about 11 million barrels a day.

Once heavily dependent on imports from the Middle East, the U.S. is getting closer to achieving its goal of producing enough crude to meet domestic demand for refined products like gasoline.

Of the 6.4 million new barrels of oil that will be pumped every day between now and 2023, almost 60% will come from the U.S., the IEA said. “And I can tell you our expectations may well need to be revised upwards if prices are higher,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.

Note: I misread that. It was up BY 2 million not up FROM 2 million.

What do you think?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

You guys don't understand 'Peak Oil' theory. Hubbard's Peak is not the point when oil runs out, but the point at which half of the known stock, that is extractable by "conventional" means, has been extracted. We passed that point about 2008, and are already on the back half of the worldwide supply. The oil that is being pulled out of the ground in the United States is not the same quality as oil that can be extracted by conventional means, and fracking is a far cry from conventional. Can the US produce more barrels of oil in 2023 than today? Probably, if the price is right. But there is still a point at which the available resources become so depleted that even modern fracking methods can't keep up with demand.

Nice redefinition. I am familiar with Matthew Simmons, Club of Rome and other doomers. It's all garbage. Their predictions never came true and redefining the meaning of Peak Oil is pointless. Who cares if "conventional" oil reserves are (or aren't) past the "peak", if we can use other sources of oil or energy in general?


King Huppert's theory of peak oil is most likely correct based upon his methodology but he had erroneous inputs as to the actual reserves (understated at the time) and actually addressed it in his research paper. He thought that higher reserve estimates were too optimistic, but they did come to pass and extended his peak oil date by 5 years. Also, unconventional oil sources such as shale oil, fracking, and directional drilling and extreme deep-sea extraction were either not technically feasible or cost effective at the time. My firm made a huge amount of shaped-charge cases used down-hole fracking applications. Also the technology used for deep-sea exploration and extraction is expensive beyond belief. This attached article explains better than I could the strengths & pitfalls of Huppert's peak oil prediction... https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2016/09/08/what-hubbert-got-really-wrong-about-oil/#49879ddb2a3b

flubber, you just proved my point why peak oil theory is garbage. The doomers are static thinkers.

An interesting aspect of the Peak Oil Theory is that of Energy-Return-on-Energy-Invested and how that coincides with the Law of Diminishing Returns. Fossil Fuels, but especially oil, are the backbone of our Industrial Civilization and without some miraculous new energy source (preferably 'clean') we may run into all sorts of trouble in trying to sustain current lifestyles. Archaeologist Joseph Tainter presents a convincing thesis in his book The Collapse of Complex Societies that the determining factor in a complex society's 'collapse' is its inability to overcome stress surges once it has begin to experience diminishing returns from its investments in increasing complexity (something that requires increasing amounts of energy resources). If indeed we have begun to experience diminishing marginal returns on our energy investments (and there appears to be plenty of evidence that we have as the EROEI of non-conventional oil/gas is much lower, to say little about the minuscule EROEI of renewable energy sources), then all that may be required for the globalized complex civilization we have created to 'collapse' is time--or a number of stress surges we cannot overcome with current 'reserves'.


You are 100% right. Commentators like Latkes think physics doesn't apply to economics or the fossil fuel industry. We have tapped the 'easy' to extract sources of oil and are turning towards more difficult to extract sources of oil (shale, oil sands etc). These more difficult to extract sources require more energy to be used in order to extract the oil. If it takes a barrel of oil's worth of energy to extract a barrel oil, what's the point? Peak oil is real, it's just that people do not understand it or the implications in regards to energy return on investment. Dr. Hall explains it in relatively simple terms in this great interview. Human technology can't overcome the laws of physics. https://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/113808/dr-charles-hall-laws-nature-trump-economics


For being so 'well read' in the area of Peak Oil, you don't seem to have a firm understanding of its many intricacies or complexity by the way you are characterizing it. And, theories, by their very nature are refined over time as more data and evidence accumulate--just think of how notions about evolution have changed since Darwin and Wallace first proposed it (to say little about shifting paradigms).


Do these oil companies make money, or are they just recycling cash and not meaningfully creating assets relative to debt?

Respectfully, this a very superficial article on the US energy business. It doesn’t matter how much “light tight oil” is produced/exported in the USA if we still have to import 8 million barrels/ day. I’m 2nd generation in this business in the Permian Basin. The unconventional business is unsustainable. Many people can excel mechanically drilling oil/ gas wells. That is the easy part of this business. Very few people have the skills to profitably operate those wells after completion.

See www.shaleprofile.com