US will Overtake Russia to Become Top Oil Producer by 2023

The International Energy Association (IEA) says the US will overtake Russia and become the leading oil producer by 2023.

U.S. crude production is expected to reach a record of 12.1 million barrels a day in 2023, up about 2 million barrels a day from this year, said the International Energy Agency, which advises governments and corporations on industry trends. American oil output will surge past Russia, currently the world’s largest crude producer at about 11 million barrels a day.

Once heavily dependent on imports from the Middle East, the U.S. is getting closer to achieving its goal of producing enough crude to meet domestic demand for refined products like gasoline.

Of the 6.4 million new barrels of oil that will be pumped every day between now and 2023, almost 60% will come from the U.S., the IEA said. “And I can tell you our expectations may well need to be revised upwards if prices are higher,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.

Note: I misread that. It was up BY 2 million not up FROM 2 million.

What do you think?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

You are 100% right. Commentators like Latkes think physics doesn't apply to economics or the fossil fuel industry. We have tapped the 'easy' to extract sources of oil and are turning towards more difficult to extract sources of oil (shale, oil sands etc). These more difficult to extract sources require more energy to be used in order to extract the oil. If it takes a barrel of oil's worth of energy to extract a barrel oil, what's the point? Peak oil is real, it's just that people do not understand it or the implications in regards to energy return on investment. Dr. Hall explains it in relatively simple terms in this great interview. Human technology can't overcome the laws of physics. https://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/113808/dr-charles-hall-laws-nature-trump-economics


For being so 'well read' in the area of Peak Oil, you don't seem to have a firm understanding of its many intricacies or complexity by the way you are characterizing it. And, theories, by their very nature are refined over time as more data and evidence accumulate--just think of how notions about evolution have changed since Darwin and Wallace first proposed it (to say little about shifting paradigms).


Do these oil companies make money, or are they just recycling cash and not meaningfully creating assets relative to debt?

Respectfully, this a very superficial article on the US energy business. It doesn’t matter how much “light tight oil” is produced/exported in the USA if we still have to import 8 million barrels/ day. I’m 2nd generation in this business in the Permian Basin. The unconventional business is unsustainable. Many people can excel mechanically drilling oil/ gas wells. That is the easy part of this business. Very few people have the skills to profitably operate those wells after completion.

See www.shaleprofile.com