The Trump administration is considering an executive order on withdrawing the U.S. from NAFTA, according to two White House officials.
A draft order has been submitted for the final stages of review and could be unveiled late this week or early next week, the officials said. The effort, which still could change in the coming days as more officials weigh in, would indicate the administration’s intent to withdraw from the sweeping pact by triggering the timeline set forth in the deal.
Peter Navarro, the head of Trump’s National Trade Council, drafted the executive order in close cooperation with White House chief strategist Steve Bannon. The executive order was submitted this week to the staff secretary for the final stages of review, according to one of the White House officials.
The draft executive order could be a hardball negotiating tactic designed to bring Mexico and Canada to the table to renegotiate NAFTA. But once Trump sets the withdrawal process in motion, the prospects for the U.S. pulling out of one of the largest trade deals on the globe become very real.
Some internally see the drafting of the executive order as a win for the “nationalist” faction within the White House led by Bannon, who has been sidelined in recent weeks since he was removed from the National Security Council.
NAFTA Running Out of Time
President Trump wants a new trade deal with Mexico and Canada soon. But he’s running out of time.
Trump has said he wants a deal that benefits US workers, but hasn’t said exactly what he wants in a new deal.
If Trump decides to stay in and renegotiate, time isn’t on his side.
His trade team, led by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, must trigger a 90-day consultation period before trade talks can begin. At the earliest, talks could start in August.
Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said “it’s completely unrealistic” to get a deal done this year.
“The notion that you’re going to have a negotiation that’s both fast and productive is just an illusion,” Alden added.
It’s also worth noting that the original NAFTA agreement, which became law in 1994, took years to put together.
Mexican leaders want negotiations done by early 2018 because Mexico has presidential elections in July of next year. There’s no telling whether the next Mexican president will cooperate with Trump on NAFTA.
Very Bad Idea
Killing NAFTA is a terrible idea. I have talked about this before but here are some pictures of the allegedly “terrible trade deal”
Trump and Navarro moan about NAFTA causing a loss of US manufacturing jobs. If anything, NAFTA stabilized or increased US manufacturing jobs for six or seven years thanks to an increase in bilateral trade.
The demise of US manufacturing jobs started in June of 1979, long before anyone could blame either Mexico or China.
US Balance of Trade in Goods with Mexico
Goods Trade with Mexico
It’s impossible to make a realistic case that NAFTA hurt the US.
Explaining Balance of Trade
The seeds of trade imbalances were sewn in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window. The trade deficit rose, then skyrocketed.
Total Credit Market Debt Owed
Following Nixon closing the gold window on August 15, 1971, credit soared out of sight to the benefit of the banks, CEOs, the already wealthy, and the politically connected.
- Trump blames Mexico and China.
- Larry Summers blames “Secular Stagnation”.
- Ben Bernanke blames a “Savings Glut”.
Scapegoating Mexico and China helped get Trump elected. Scapegoating also allows the Fed and central banks to blame anything and everything but lack of a gold standard.
“Our Currency but Your Problem”
The source of global trading imbalances, soaring debt, declining real wages, and the massive rise of the 1% at the expense of the bottom 90% is Nixon closing the gold window.
At that time, Nixon’s treasury secretary John Connally famously told a group of European finance ministers worried about the export of American inflation that the “dollar is our currency, but your problem.”
Balance of trade issues, soaring debt, declining real wages, and the demise of the US middle class are now our problem.
Before doing something stupid, Trump should take a look at this chart.
Ready, Willing, Able
So far, Trump has backed away, reversed positions, or failed in nearly everything he has tried to do or stood for in the election: Russia policy, Syria, getting Mexico to pay for a wall, and labeling China a currency manipulator are key examples.
Perhaps this is another negotiation ploy, but Trump fired a warning shot yesterday that he is ready, willing, and able to do something majorly stupid.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock