I think your analysis is well-reasoned. The questions are: Will QE unwind really ever get going? When does it start again? I don't have the answers. No one does.

Thanks Mish. I just accidentally deleted everything so just to say this.~ People n my business couldn’t understand why oil prices fell several years ago from 100$ a barrel down to the 40’s until we have moved up to about 60 today. Many good reasons I guess supply demand factors I guess. But not long ago I looked at the dollar index chart and saw what the dollar did when we stopped QE in October of 2014. Well of course that’s when the dollar took off to later make its high of whatever It’s late here. You surely know where I’m going with this~without looking it up, the price of crude oil began its decent at almost the exact time QE stopped in Oct of 2014 as the dollar took off. Same thing has been happening in reverse as the dollar has been moving down the dollar price of crude has been moving up, along with price of gold. Sorry I got way off the subject with this but that was deleted