Login

Italy Election March 4: Consider a Surprise M5S + NL Alliance

The Italian national elections are on March 4. Polling has stopped. I expect the Five Star Movement (M5S) will do well.

I have been following Italian Election Polls for months.

There are two reasons I have not commented much.

  • First, the System is rigged against the Five Star Movement.
  • Second, the M5S is now no longer calling for a euro exit. An M5S win is not as disruptive as it once was.

System Rigging

It's not talked about in mainstream media, but the other parties got together and passed rules that place more emphasis on coalitions than coming in first.

If the other coalitions agree to exclude M5S there is nothing M5S can do other than top the 40% threshold, winning outright.

Yes, 40%, not 50% is the new majority. Even that is not enough if another coalition can top the mark.

Recent Italy Polls

Return of​ Silvio Berlusconi?!

On October 26, 2012 former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi was convicted of tax fraud in an Italian court and was sentenced to four years' imprisonment. He was also banned from running for public office for a five-year term.

Guess what? The clock on his ban is expiring.

If the March 4 elections result in a hung parliament that results in new election, this 81-year old tax fraud may very well end up back as Italy's prime minister.

Ain't life grand?

Beppe Grillo?

Beppe Grillo, the founder of M5S, has ruled out coalitions. However, it's not his choice.

On September 20-21 2017 the Vice President of the Chamber of Deputies, Luigi Di Maio was elected in an on-line primary election, with 82% of votes, replacing Grillo as leader of the M5S.

Grand Coalition?

If the polls are accurate, the center-right and center-left could form a "grand" coalition. However, their policies are so divergent, it could not last.

Perhaps a "grand" coalitions forms as a matter of political expediency.

For example, Silvio Silvio Berlusconi could agree to the coalition with a thought of killing at at a convenient time next year when he can run again directly.

The eurosceptic Northern League (NL) is very wary of the center-right alliance and Silvio Berlusconi's backstabbing history.

Berlusconi is now one of the more pro-europe proponents after having advocated leaving the euro.

However, the coalitions are set until after the election. The setup opens up quite a number of possibilities.

Other Possibilities

If no coalition or combination of coalitions can top 40%, the announced coalition agreements dissolve.

Should that happen, there is a distinct chance that M5S aligns with the Northern League.

M5S+LN easily tops 40%. Should M5S outperform, this is a likely result.

Italian polls are highly unreliable. If voters wish to voice disapproval, they will vote for M5S. It is on that basis I project M5S to surprise to the upside.

Following the election, whatever the outcome, there will be enormous pressure from every corner to form an unworkable "grand" coalition just as is happening now in Germany.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

“M5S are pro-Euro, “….

Nominally, yes.

But they are not pro any Europe that Germany could stomach, nor afford, being part of. Germany is who needs to leave the EU, if the EU is to be reformed/discarded. The southerners won’t, as Greece demonstrated. The prospect of no longer being able to mooch off, while blaming, Germans, are just too frightening. Or to un-European, in contemporary parlance.

They will go along with anything that Germany wants as long as they can spend like there's no tomorrow. Even if they don't get their way about spending, they are still dangerous leftists who want carbon taxes, harmonized minimum wage across EU, basic income and feminist bullshit laws.

They also want to force the "doctors and engineers" onto every other country in the EU.

The Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University has been staffing the US diplomatic corps virtually forever. It was in existence BEFORE THERE EVEN WAS a diplomatic corps in need of new diplomats. How about that for creepy?

Wiki stub excerpt :
“] Founded in 1919, SFS predates the U.S. Foreign Service by six years, and is sometimes referred to as the "West Point of the U.S. diplomatic corps" due to the large number of SFS graduates who end up being diplomats.”

Stories