How Long Will the Government Shutdown Last?

I rated the government shutdown threat a "zero bowls of popcorn" affair. Others think it's the real deal.

CNN's reason is "human nature".

CNN then came to a brilliant conclusion: "The most likely scenario remains a relatively brief government shutdown."

In summary, human nature may cause the shutdown to last longer than you think, but most likely it won't. Thank you CNN.

Nuclear Option

Trump threatened the "Nuclear Option". That means Trump proposes the Senate change the rules so that only 51% are needed to end a filibuster instead of 60%.

That possibility ensures blockage will not go on indefinitely. At some point, Republicans would do just that.

Calculated Risk Poll

In an informal Twitter Poll, Bill McBride (Calculated Risk), asked followers what they thought.

I voted with the 57% (the top category, by January 28) but there are still a couple hours left and the percentages may change.

Zero Bowls of Popcorn

Don't bother popping corn while waiting for fireworks. There won't be any fireworks. Some agreement will come, likely sooner than later, but long before anything significant happens.

Any bond selloff over this shutdown is unwarranted.

The shutdown itself merits no popcorn.

Amusing comments by CNN and political hacks provide the only reason to get out a bowl. We also have this question to consider.

Answers coming up, I expect shortly.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

the problem is trump is acting very much the emasculated president. his base is against DACCA and trump is not strong enough to go against that. The Times reports that he's in the white house sulking and not engaged in brokering a deal.

@Sechel never read any news article without the knowledge that all news is propaganda depending on your belief system.


Trump has been against DACA all along. "Some people" would suggest he needs to be "stronger" and contradict himself and stab his base in the back by agreeing to support the unchecked illegal immigration. That makes about as much sense as CNN saying "it might last longer than you think, but it probably won't". Oh wait, it's CNN. Never mind; for a second there I almost thought CNN had something to do with facts and logic.

Of course if Trump did end up supporting illegal immigration those same people that hope he will, will accuse him of not keeping a campaign promise.

Only in govt can you be rewarded for grossly mismanaging your budget, and get paid time off because your Rep puts ILLEGALS ahead of citizens. If no one was being paid for this selfish stupidity, you can guarantee there would be no shut down.

There would also be MUCH less corruption and K Street rents would be much less if we had term limits. But I digress. This disfunction is not lost on the 99% of 2nd Amendment supporters who understand why the Founders made the right to bear arms the 2nd most important Amendment.

Since the constituents of Pelosi, Schumer, Durbin, McConnel, Graham, and the other establishment hacks are clueless about how they are being played, it's fairly safe to say they will be pitifully unprepared for having their pension wiped out, and the level of civil unrest that will follow. The only people that may be more surprised are the politicians that think they can avoid the carnage.

majority of folks now get a "check" from big gov 1st of the month,handout check, disabilty check,pay check,entitlement check,subsidy check ,unemployment check,which means if they're gonna reach a debt limit deal they're gonna have to go HUUUGGEEE!At least 4 trillion just to get through 2019,6-8 tril in red ink to 2020 ,good luck with that.......PRINT ON


Obama doubled it in his two terms - Trump will do the same so they’d have to ask for 10 trillion raise to make it past next presidential election. DACA is going to go through but it’s going to cost the US a lot.

So, I'm at work now as a government contractor. No one knows what we're supposed to do or if we should even be at work. Last time this happened, I was deemed essential, but was limited on what I could work on. I spent my days reading books.

I do software development and they were computer books.

Its going to last because its symbolic of the partisan divide, two major bills passed on party lines has sowed the seeds of this enmity. It's almost as though the President isn't really there? VP Pence is more important he can cast the tie breaking vote in the Senate.

and its over. schumer blinked