Harry Dent Warns of "$700 Gold by 2018"

Crash stories amuse me, especially when they are from someone with a proven track record of being spectacularly wrong.

Investors are fleeing to gold in a desperate attempt to weather the recent market volatility… but is this long time “safe-haven” actually poised to collapse wiping out trillions of dollars of wealth in the process?

One highly respected Harvard economist is stating an emphatic “yes!”.

“While many economists will argue that gold is not in a bubble… and insist it will soar to $2,000, $5,000 and even $10,000, my research has said otherwise” says Harvard economist Harry Dent in his latest report. “I’ve never been more certain of anything in over 30 years of economic forecasting.”

Market volatility, worries over the Europe Central Bank, negative interest rates, and China are among a laundry list of events that are driving panicked masses to buy the yellow metal. But this is only inflating the gold bubble that is poised to pop at any moment, he says.

Dent, who pioneered a whole new science of economic forecasting in the early 1980’s has been able to accurately predict almost every major economic event over the past 30 years. —including the collapse of Japan, The Great Tech Boom of the 1990’s, and the 2008 market crash.

Market Volatility?

Dent is amazingly funny. Volatility has never been lower.

Harry Dent Contrarian Book Covers

Economist Harry Dent made a fortune with a series of 100% ass-backwards books.

Special Talent

Harry Dent has a special talent. Few people are perfect contrarian indicators. Even fewer brag about their success while being 100% wrong.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Doom and gloom sells. These guys that sell newsletters, books, blogs, all know this. Newspapers and news media have know this for hundreds of years. Bad news outsells good or average news. There is something dark about us humans. Harry Dent knows this. He is a marketing guy.

To Peter EV - it is really not very difficult to ascertain whether a gold coin is or isn't legit, since they are all standardized and there are only two metals with a specific gravity close to that of gold (tungsten and plutonium). Since it doesn't pay (at least not yet) to make fake gold coins with tungsten - it is only used to make fake bars from 1 kg upward - standardized coins are easily testable. In fact, only platinum (which is even heavier) is close enough in weight to gold that one would be unable to know whether a coin is legit by simply eyeing its size and testing its heft by hand. The Weber-Fechner law stipulates that weight differences in excess of one third can be easily identified with one's own senses. In other words, once you are familiar with the size and heft of one ounce gold coins, it should be almost impossible to fool you with a cheap fake.

I recently read that is costs roughly $1,000 to produce an ounce of gold. It's an average based on produced amount divided by expenses for the worlds largest mines. That puts a reasonable floor on the price. It might dip below that short term, but long term, the mines will shut down before selling at a 30% loss for very long. The cost of production have been steadily going up. All the easy gold has been mined.

He's clearly hedged his bets. He can point to this: “While many economists will argue that gold is not in a bubble… and insist it will soar to $2,000, $5,000 and even $10,000, my research has said otherwise.” See how that works? When gold doesn't get to $2000 an ounce or more, he can claim he was correct, even though his prediction of $700 an ounce is wrong. He can hide that fact and point to how he was "right" regarding spectacular price increases. That does beg a question though: who are the economists predicting $10,000 per ounce gold prices?

Pete3397 "who are the economists predicting $10,000 per ounce gold prices?" - Jim Rickards for one

  • Dent did make 4 good predictions:1) Japan was te weaken

A perfect contrarian indicator indeed. I knew Harvard had some nutty professors, but I didn't know Harry is employed there, so that's another contrarian indicator. Excuse me now, I must go buy some more gold.

The "great crash" hasn't happened yet... not because HD got it all wrong, but because TPTB were never going to allow the US economy to crash while the US had a minority president, period. Now that Obama is gone, all bets are off. QE = 8 years of wubby blanket for Pres. Obama... that's all.

IOW, Trump will be the primary market crash Fall Guy... the script is so obvious a blind man could read it...

IOW, Trump will be the "crash" Fall Guy... the script is so obvious that a blind man can read it...