The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 3.8 percent on July 6, down from 4.1 percent on July 2. Since the last GDPNow update on Monday, July 2, the nowcasts of second-quarter real consumer spending growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth have declined from 2.9 percent and 7.1 percent, respectively, to 2.7 percent and 6.0 percent, respectively. These declines more than offset an increase in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth from 0.62 percentage points to 0.70 percentage points after this morning's international trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
As GDPNow continues its volatile trend the New York Fed Nowcast shows virtually no movement on anything.
For a discussion of the GDPNow ISM bounce, please see "Dynamic Factor" Boosts GDPNow Following ISM: Email Discussion With Pat Higgins.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock