GDPNow ISM Bounce Fades: Forecast Dips to 3.8%, Nowcast Remains 2.8%

Volatility remains the name of the game for GDPNow. Nonvolatility is the game for the New York Fed Nowcast.

GDPNow Latest Forecast: 3.8% - July 6, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 3.8 percent on July 6, down from 4.1 percent on July 2. Since the last GDPNow update on Monday, July 2, the nowcasts of second-quarter real consumer spending growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth have declined from 2.9 percent and 7.1 percent, respectively, to 2.7 percent and 6.0 percent, respectively. These declines more than offset an increase in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth from 0.62 percentage points to 0.70 percentage points after this morning's international trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Nowcast Latest Forecast: 3.8% - July 6, 2018

Volatility Comparison

As GDPNow continues its volatile trend the New York Fed Nowcast shows virtually no movement on anything.

For a discussion of the GDPNow ISM bounce, please see "Dynamic Factor" Boosts GDPNow Following ISM: Email Discussion With Pat Higgins.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Actually Tony, I do believe that. I see it a lot of it where I live. Help wanted signs everywhere. Lots of job ads in the papers and online job sites. Businesses complaining about not being able to find qualified workers. Wage growth seems to be about 2-3%.

Paper's don't really exist anymore- no one post legitimate jobs there. As for on-line job-sites, often most postings our just re-tread from agencies.

There is no sustainable wage growth.

Wage growth is low. Jobs are plentiful. Any worker with any skills is working. Only the unskilled have trouble qualifying for the many jobs sitting empty b

You are correct Tony. Healthcare has gone up as well as housing in those three years. I live outside of (and work in) Seattle. My job is a professional position so a fairly high paying job (hospital lab) so we aren't just talking low wage positions. I do not understand people believing this economy is robust.