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GDPNow Forecast Rises, Nowcast Dips on Same Economic Data

On Friday, the GDPNow and Nowcast models updated their 4th quarter GDP forecasts. One model rose, the other fell.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecast rose to 3.3% from 2.8% on Friday. On the same data, the New York Fed Nowcast Model fell from 4.0% to 3.9%.

GDPNow Forecast: 3.3% - January 12, 2018

Gdpnow Highlights

  • The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.3 percent on January 12, up from 2.8 percent on January 10.
  • The forecast of fourth-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 3.0 percent to 3.8 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

​Nowcast Forecast: 3.9% - January 12, 2018

Nowcast Highlights

  • The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.9% for 2017:Q4 and 3.2% for 2018:Q1.
  • News from this week's data releases decreased the nowcast for 2017:Q4 by 0.1 percentage point and decreased the nowcast for 2018:Q1 by 0.2 percentage point.
  • A negative surprise from lower than expected retail sales accounted for most of the decrease.

​The Nowcast model had a small negative surprise on retail sales but GDPNow had a significant positive surprise on the same data.

Once again, note the volatility pf the GDPNow forecast to that of Nowcast.

As I have often stated, it's not the data itself that matters, it's what the data shows vs what the model predicted that matters.

Friday's reports spell that out in spades.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Janet Yellen on concerns about asset valuations @ 2:12 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgUQ-W-eRUM

This is good! Now you can combine the reactions of both forecasts to news and have a 50% chance of being right by picking one at random. This beats any other economic indicator.

"... it's not the data itself that matters..." It's how the data can be spun for political purposes.

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