GDPNow 2nd-Quarter Forecast Jumps to 4.8%, Nowcast 3.3%

The GDPNow model is back in its typical pattern of reacting to economic news in a far more volatile manner than Nowcast.

Nowcast June 1, 2018

GDPNow June 1, 2018

The GDPNow Model is back in the pattern of reacting to neww with a far greater amplitude than the Nowcast Model.

In regards to a 4.8% forecast, take the under, way under.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock


This sounds just like a Trump marketing trick. Trump it up and ride the wave that never happens.

I will continue to “take” roughly 2% growth from now till 2020 (1 1/2) years going forward, just like I have for the previous 4 years, assuming no black swan event like a trade war.

There are many on this site that have been predicting a massive crash “soon”, for the last 4 years. I am not in that group.