GDP Tomorrow: Here's the Final Forecasts

The first estimate for 4th-quarter GDP is due tomorrow. Let's take a look at some estimates.

GDPNow

The GDPNow estimate as of January 25 is 3.4%.​

​Nowcast

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York Nowcast estimate as of January 18 is 3.9%​

Econoday Consensus

The Econoday consensus estimate is 2.9%

2.2% to 3.3% is quite a range. Factor in Nowcast and the range is 2.2% to 3.9%.

Wow.

I think 3.9% is wildly high and 2.2% considerably low. I will guess slightly higher than the consensus at 3.0%.

Nothing will surprise me much other than the top or bottom estimates coming in.

That said, I estimate any pleasant surprises for the 4th quarter will be undone in the first quarter of 2018.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock​

Mish, when will you give this up? GDP will boom in 2018 due to the tax reform bill. I know we're paying for it with more debt, but businesses are giddy over it. Combine that with lower regulations and a sense of optimism for corporations and you have all the makings for 4% growth next year. In the short run we will see solid growth. In the long run we are screwed due to our debt, unless of course we have 5% growth for the next ten years. When Q1 2018 comes it above 3.5% I would like you to finally admit you are not good at predicting GDP growth. Your record over the past five years on this has been atrocious.

Making correct predictions is exceedingly difficult. I applaud Mish for even trying. He is bound to be wrong more often than right. I’m glad he tries a bottom up approach, similar to the various organizations that he follows. I prefer a top down approach, looking at longer term trends. As a result, I believe that there too many constraints on the US economy to be able to grow at 3% or more for the next few years. These constraints include a lack of skilled labour, trade issues, and uncertainty caused by Trump flip flopping all the time. I still expect growth between 2 and 3 percent.

Mish is generating hyperbole , click read the article and respond. It's how his web site gets paid. The entire internet works that way. Click bait. Watch the charts. It's all that matters. Read things for entertainment only.