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Bitcoin Fad Fading: For Now or for Good?

Bitcoin failed its latest breakout attempt. Heck, it did not even come close. Down again we go. For how long?

Please consider the Bitcoin Fad Is Fading—for Now.

It might be hard to believe. But after the 1,400 percent rally of 2017, with wild swings along the way, the great crypto craze has cooled, at least for now. For the past month, Bitcoin’s price has stalled between $8,500 and $11,300 -- a minuscule range by its standards. And internet searches for “Bitcoin” have plunged, suggesting public interest has, too.

“The general public is now realizing that this is not a risk-free, get-rich-quick, investment opportunity and general interest has since diminished,” said Lucas Nuzzi, a senior analyst at Digital Asset Research.

Online searches for “bitcoin” fell 82 percent from December highs, according to Google Trends. Tweets that mention the coin peaked Dec. 7, at 155,600, and are now down to about 63,000, BitInfoCharts says. And the number of bitcoin transactions is off 60 percent from its record on Dec. 13, according to Blockchain.info.

December brought “Bitcoin Craze Propels Coinbase App to No. 1 in Apple’s Store.” Now there’s “Bitcoin’s Wildest Days Are Over as Regulators Circle.” Indeed, Bitcoin’s been in the news for all the wrong reasons lately.

For Now or for Good?

That's the million dollar question as well as a the price many true believers think is in the cards.

$4,000,000?

Why not? As long as you are making idiotic predictions, why not $100,000,000? Why not a billion?

For someone who got in at at $1,000 with a $10,000 purchase would have $10,000,000 if it gets to a million. Someone who got in at $100 would have $100 million.

Someone how got it at a penny with a $10,000 purchase would have 10 billion dollars.

Cashing Out

At some point the early investors will want to cash out. It might be at a $1 million, at $10 million, at $100,000, or something far less.

I suspect it is happening now.

Suppy alone, from those cashing out will prevent these nonsensical targets from ever coming close whether or not governments shut down the exchanges or tax the hell out of them.

Latecomer Psychology

What about those who paid over $12,000? Unless they have become true believers, they are now praying to get out whole.

What about those getting in at $6,000 and HODLing?

They had a 300% gain and are now approaching break even for the second time?

Will they keep HODLing at $6,000? $5,000? $4,000?

More supply is coming if Bitcoin makes a new low.

When's the Panic?

At some point, even the true believer HODLers will panic.

When? I do not know. But I confidently predict a massacre when it happens.

Meanwhile, $28,000 is still in play. So is $4,000 and $500.

Feelin' lucky? For now or for good?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

If the Ligtning network attempted built on top of Bitcoin turns out to not run into any major snafus wrt scaling, that could (should, as it’s useful tech) give Bitcoin an additional wave of hype.

Still not convinced any crypto without provable anonymity will gain ubiquity (unless adopted by a government, and fat chance of that…), but Lightning at least makes BTC more obviously useful for a wide range of transactions people intuitively expect to be able to use a “digital currency” for.

this may be either salient or non-sensical, but I firmly believe those investing only did so because it was going up and not any real belief in value. works that way with stocks quite often

I guess the moral of the story here is that crypto currencies, beyond their utility for buying drugs online, getting money out of China, and evading taxes in the IT service sector, holds its value because it's fun. It's the same as chips in casino. Sure the chips are useless and the house always wins, but people buy into it because people are strange that way.

The only thing that changed is that the big money from finance ignorantly waded into the scene just like they did in the Tech bubble, pronouncing things 10 to 100 years too early, and now most of them are pulling out now they have become conscious of their own stupidity.

Still the point remains that cryptocurrency isn't going away, and it is the future. The somewhat DISTANT future.

HODL!!! HODL the door!

Crypto is the anti-fiat...give it time

Its time hasn't begun. The Lord shall rebuke thee Mish... Assuming you're still alive when crypto does finally displace fiat - and the singularity hasn't already occured.

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