Bitcoin -25%, Ethereum -29%, Ripple -44%: Is the Bitcoin Top In?

Bitcoin is interesting to watch due to its volatility. It's down 25% for the day. Ripple is down 44%.

I like watching Bitcoin because I have no idea what it will do and the volatility is breathtaking.

I have also been gathering a number of Bitcoin Tweets over the past few months regarding pontifications by people who have no clue where it's going, but they make forecasts anyway.

When Bitcoin fell to $12,000 from $19,000 a couple weeks back then rebounded to $16,000 the true believers were out in force.

One said the bottom was in. Another quickly predicted $26,000.

People are picking numbers out of their ass.

Bitcoin Top In?

Poll

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

@blacklisted just because Blockchain has value doesn’t mean Bitcoin or any crypto currency has value - that is following your own logic

" By March it should be obvious, and by June you will be kicking yourself."

Please enlighten us in advance since you seem to know the unknowable.

So many times I hear this argument that 'fiat currency has no intrinsic value', that 'fiat currency is not backed by anything'. This is plain wrong: all fiat currency has real value: It settles a tax obligation with the issuing government. An obligation that all economically active entities have. Furthermore if you are a bank (or other relevant financial institution) a fiat currency settles a reserve obligation at the issuer's central bank. Both of these - taxes and reserve obligations - are enforced by law. Punishable by fines and/or prison time. That's the underlying creator of demand for fiat currency. You can go off and do whatever you want in stocks, in USDs, in EURs, in bonds, in gold, in cryptocurrencies ... but at the end of the year you owe the government tax and you can only pay it in their currencies. Governments are of course superslow to react, which is why believers misinterpret this current sense of freedom it enjoys. But no govt will ever surrender monopoly of the ccy. So crypto ccys will end up on the receiving end of regulation. In fact, it could end up being the most regulated asset in the world because since no sovereign owns it everyone can regulate it. Or looking at it another way Since it must be maintained on multiple servers in multiple locations these host countries could all individually & simultaneously regulate it.

No one knows the future. Not even those who claim Bitcoin will go to zero, is a fraud, or equates to a Beanie Baby.

@ Realist I think you mean to say "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." Attributed to Niels Bohr, over fifty years ago.

Awwww. I always thought that Yogi said that!

By the way, CJones, much of your post on currency is correct. Though history shows us many currencies have indeed gone to zero.

Which are the bits on currency that you disagree with and find incorrect?

And every time Bitcoin corrects the naysayers come out and proclaim its death. That was way to hot too fast. But at least it’s a free market- unlike stocks which are only allowed to go up.

Sounds to me like Blacklisted is picking numbers out of their ass. As a trader for three decades of options, stocks, futures, and metals, I would be very interested in knowing what method is being used for a $50K level EOY prediction. Anytime I hear anyone make a timing/level prediction I have a tendency to call bullcrap.