Global Politics

Five Star + Northern League a Projected Majority

Senate returns now project a Five Star plus Northern League outright majority.

Note: This is a live blog but with newest information at the bottom.

The Independent reports Exit polls point to no party gaining absolute majority.

Exit Estimates

Note the slightly higher estimates for the Northern League than Forza Italia.

If it's a hung election, I believe the existing coalitions will die and new ones will form.

Some Returns Coming In

Returns are now coming in, and some people are shocked.

From Bloomberg

Top Lega (Northern League) official Giancarlo Giorgetti speaking from party HQ:

"These are historic results for the Lega. We're picking up votes from North to South. We had 4 percent in 2013, now projections say 16 to 17 percent, perhaps more. We'll discuss things with our allies but this is a historic moment for the Lega."

Prior totals were for the Senate only where the Voting age is 25. Lower parliament voting age is 18. House projections now look similar according to La7, via Bloomberg

Shocking Defeat

Matteo Renzi will comment on the outcome once final data are in. He did, however, admit defeat: "This is a very clear and definite defeat for us. It is a result that is very clearly negative.''

Bloomberg FX editor Marco Bertacche made this comment. emphasis mine.

"We'll monitor reaction from the losers (likely Democratic Party secretary and former PM Renzi) and hints at post-vote coalition talks from the winners (Salvini, Five Star's Di Maio)"

Most of mainstream media is still in denial, referring to the Silvio Berlusconi-led center right.

Berlusconi looks doomed to come in fourth place.

Senate Projections

From Marco Bertacche

A new seats' projection from RAI/Opinio Italia for the 315-member Senate is out -- no coalition has a majority; eventual League-Five Star would have a majority.

Live Results

Here is a good Live Results feed.

Translation as of 8:26 PM central: "Triumph M5S, League exploit: populist forces over 50%. Renzi's Democratic Party collapses. Center-right the most voted"

Latest lead-in chart is from TGSky 24 Projection. Anecdotes in White are mine.

No Surprise Here

Four days ago I suggested Italy Election March 4: Consider a Surprise M5S + NL Alliance.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

18 Responses

  • Tony_CA

    Mar 4, 2018

    Anyway you look at it, People have had it with Renzi's coalition.

  • Tony_CA

    Mar 4, 2018

    I have a feeling the exit polls are going be slightly off. I don't think they will be a hung parliament.

  • Mike Mish Shedlock

    Mar 4, 2018

    Lots of exit polls saying same thing

  • formula57

    Mar 4, 2018

    One possibility now perhaps is Berlusconi stabs in the front Lega Nord (that against Berlusconi's putative expectations seems to be doing slightly better than its coalition partner which might bestow upon it an unwelcome ascendancy) and form a majority government with Cinque Stelle (around which he should be able to run rings, the sly old viper).

  • Mike Mish Shedlock

    Mar 4, 2018

    Not Berlusconi's choice! If M5S + LN agree to a coalition there is nothing Berlusconi can do about it but whine. The reason I suggested it is precisely because LN feared backstabbing

  • Mike Mish Shedlock

    Mar 4, 2018

    Berlusconi only has a choice if they reach a majority, perhaps requiring PD to play along

  • Latkes

    Mar 4, 2018

    Cinque Stelle is a party of forced migrant relocations across EU, gender quotas, carbon taxes and basic income. Does that sound like a match for Berlusconi?

  • formula57

    Mar 4, 2018

    I would expect Berlusconi to make a pact with the devil if it saw him return to power. It is of course true that he might be outmanoeuvered by Lega Nord and left out in the cold - but he is the most formidable of the operators on the stage at present.

  • Latkes

    Mar 5, 2018

    >First Real Returns Evaluated: Five Star + Northern League Approach 50% I expect Northern League's numbers fluctuate a lot more than other parties as the results are being calculated. They have very uneven support across Italian regions.

  • Mike Mish Shedlock

    Mar 5, 2018

    If FI comes in 4th, it is all over for Berlusconi. Finished.

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